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OF Bulletin du matin

05/10/2021
Categories: General Information

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Equity markets are expected to rise ahead of eurozone and US PMIs. The Eurostoxx 50 opened at 3,996.41 points (-0.96%), the CAC 40 at 6,477.66 points (-0.61%), the DAX 40 at 15,036.55 points (-0.79%), the FTSE 100 at 7,011.01 points (-0.23%), the SMI at 11,582.35 points (+0.06%), the AEX  at  757.20 points (-1.24%), the BEL 20 at 4,116.92 points (-0.49%), the IBEX 35 at 8,791.70 points (-0.09%), the DJIA at 34,002.92 points (-0.94%), the Nasdaq at 14,255.48 points (-2.14%), the S&P 500 at 4,300.46 points (-1.30%) and the Nikkei 225 at 27,755.54 points down 2.42%.

On the exchange rate side, the change from the close in New York indicates that EUR/USD opens at 1.1598 down 0.19%, EUR/JPY remained stable at 128.91 and USD/JPY at 111.19  with an increase of 0.23%.

Investors will be paying attention on Tuesday to industrial production figures for August and the services PMI for September. IHS Markit's preliminary estimate, released on September 23, showed the index falling to 56 in September, its lowest level in five months, from 56.3 in August.

European equity markets are expected to open higher on Tuesday, recovering some of the ground lost on Monday, as investors await final September services PMI figures in the eurozone and the United States. At 7:45 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract gained 14 points, or 0.2%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The DAX contract was up 37 points, or 0.25%, and the FTSE 100 contract was up 21 points, or 0.3%. Gains could remain fragile, however, as Asian markets retreated on Tuesday, in the wake of Wall Street the day before. Investors are worried about the health of China's real estate sector and the impact that rising crude prices, currently at their highest since 2014, will have on inflation. At the end of the session, the Nikkei index gave up 2.5% in Tokyo and the Kospi gave up 2.1% in Seoul. In contrast, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Hang Seng Index gained 0.2%.

Occupied with congressional negotiations over raising the debt ceiling and plans for infrastructure investment and social reform, Wall Street ended sharply lower on Monday. Technology stocks posted the biggest declines of the session and the Nasdaq Composite Index gave up 2.1% to 14,255.48 points. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) lost 0.9% to 34,002.92 points, and the broader S&P 500 index fell 1.3% to 4,300.46 points.

US Treasury yields rose Tuesday morning, but the yield on the U.S. ten-year bond, the market's benchmark stock, remains below 1.5%. At 7:45 a.m., the yield on the ten-year Treasury rose 1.3 basis points to 1.496%.

The euro fell on Tuesday against the dollar, which is supported by strong demand for safe-haven assets. The greenback is expected to continue its rise in the short term, given tensions between China and the United States and risks related to struggling Chinese real estate developer Evergrande, Oanda said. Morgan Stanley also believes that the recent rebound in the US currency is not over and that the euro could fall as much as $1.14 before the end of the year. The surge in gas prices in Europe is also expected to boost the dollar, which will benefit from high demand for safe haven assets, while the impact of this price increase on economic activity will reduce the likelihood of a tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB), says James Lord.

Oil contracts continue to rise on Tuesday, still buoyed by the decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to keep their production trajectory unchanged. Prices for Nymex-listed light sweet crude (WTI) ended Monday at its highest level in nearly seven years. OPEC+ announced on Monday that it would maintain the increase in its production to 400,000 barrels per day in November. At 7:35 a.m., the December Contract for North Sea Brent gained 20 cents to $81.46 a barrel. The November contract for light sweet crude (WTI) listed on the Nymex was up 14 cents, at $77.76 a barrel.

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