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OF Morning Bulletin

07/07/2022
Categories: General Information

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Stocks are expected to open sharply higher after the Fed minutes and before the ECB minutes. The Eurostoxx 50 opened at 3,421.84 points +1.85% , the CAC 40 at 5,912.38 points +2.03% , the DAX 40 at 12,594.52 points +1.56% , the FTSE 100 at 7,107.77 points +1.17% , the SMI at 10,840.60 points +1.29% , the AEX at 656.71 points +1.94% , the BEL 20 at 3.711.71 points +1.33% , the IBEX 35 at 7,948.60 points -0.14% , the DJIA at 31,037.68 points +0.23% , the Nasdaq at 11,361.85 points +0.35%, the S&P 500 at 3,845.08 points +0.36% and the Nikkei 225 at 26,454.59 points +1.33%.
On the currency front, the change from the close in New York showed the EUR/USD at 1.0201 +0.17%, the EUR/JPY at 138.39 -0.03%, and the USD/JPY at 135.67 -0.19%.
The French government will present on Thursday a series of measures to support the purchasing power of the French in the face of accelerating inflation. In addition, Agence France Trésor (AFT) will auction between EUR 11 billion and EUR 12 billion of long-term OATs (Obligations Assimilables du Trésor)
The main European equity indices are expected to rise sharply on Thursday morning. At around 7:30 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract was up 70 points, or 1.2%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The DAX 40 contract was up 121 points, or 1%, and the FTSE 100 was up 78 points, or 1.1%.
A further 50 or 75 basis point hike will be considered by U.S. central bankers in July, according to the meeting minutes released Wednesday. Still, Fed officials are concerned that the recent period of rising prices is changing consumer psychology and helping to keep inflation high.
Wall Street ended slightly higher on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 0.2 percent to 31,037.68 points. The broader S&P 500 Index gained 0.4 percent to 3,845.08 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.4 percent to 11,361.85 points.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will also publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting. Investors will therefore be especially attentive to the content of the discussions on the risk of fragmentation of financial conditions in the euro zone. The ECB has announced that it is preparing a new anti-fragmentation tool, which is expected to be unveiled on July 21 at the end of the next monetary policy meeting.
In Asia, markets were in the green on Thursday. The Nikkei index gained 1.5% at the end of the session in Tokyo. The Hang Seng of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was up 0.1%. The Shanghai Composite index advanced by 0.5%.
The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond remained higher Thursday morning than the yield on the 10-year bond, maintaining the inversion of the curve. At around 7:30 a.m., the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was trading at 2.921%, compared to 2.963% for the two-year security. The Fed minutes clearly suggested that a further 75 basis point rate hike "was not guaranteed."
The euro is regaining some color Thursday against the dollar, which remains at its highest level in 20 years against a basket of currencies, however.
The restrictive tone of the latest Fed meeting minutes, amid growing recession fears, will likely continue to support the dollar. The minutes suggest a 75 basis point interest rate hike after the July 26-27 meeting, says MUFG Bank.

Oil futures are moving higher Thursday morning, although Nymex-listed light sweet crude (WTI) remains below $100 a barrel. Fitch Solutions expects oil prices to remain high as supply risks rise, and revised its forecast for the average price of North Sea Brent in 2022 to $105 a barrel, up from a previous expectation of $100 a barrel. At 7:20 a.m., the September Brent contract was up 84 cents at $101.51 a barrel. The August WTI contract was up 79 cents at $99.32 a barrel.

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