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OF Morning Bulletin

05/09/2022
Categories: General Information

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European stock markets are expected to open sharply lower after the Nord Stream gas pipeline was completely shut down. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,544.38 points (+2.54%), the CAC 40 at 6,167.51 points (+2.21%), the DAX 40 at 13.050.27 points (+3.33%), the FTSE 100 at 7,281.19 points (+1.86%), the SMI at 10,891.71 points (+2.14%), the AEX at 678.57 points (+1.74%), the BEL 20 at 3.614.82 points (+2.31%), the IBEX 35 at 7,932.20 points (+1.62%), the DJIA at 31,318.44 points (-1.07%), the Nasdaq at 11,630.86 points (-1.31%), the S&P 500 at 3,924.26 points (-1.07%) and the Nikkei 225 at 27,648.64 points (-0.01%).

In terms of exchange rates, the change from the close in New York shows EUR/USD at 0.9901 (-0.56%), EUR/JPY at 138.99 (-0.46%) and USD/JPY at 140.38 (+0.12%).

Investors will be paying close attention on Monday to the final services PMI numbers for August. Preliminary data released by S&P Global on August 23 showed a decline in the index to 51, from 53.2 in July. On the corporate side, the Minister of Culture, Rima Abdul Malak, intervened this weekend in the commercial dispute between Canal+ and TF1, asking the pay-TV platform to reThe Minister of Culture, Rima Abdul Malak, intervened this weekend in the commercial dispute between Canal+ and TF1, asking the pay-TV platform to re-establish access to the channels of the audiovisual group in its TNT Sat offer, which allows the reception of digital terrestrial television (DTT) channels in certain areas with poor terrestrial coverage.

European stock markets are expected to fall early Monday, following a sell-off on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday. Investors are nervous ahead of a week marked by the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting and after Russian gas producer Gazprom's announcement that it will completely shut down the Nord Stream pipeline until a turbine is repaired. At around 7:40 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract was losing 176 points, or 2.9%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The DAX contract was plunging 433 points, or 3.3 percent, and the FTSE 100 was down 81 points, or 1.1 percent.

Wall Street ended lower Friday following a volatile session after the release of the U.S. jobs report for August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 1.1%, as did the broader S&P 500 index, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gave up 1.3%. For the week as a whole, the Dow Jones index lost 3%, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 lost 3.3% and 4.2% respectively, as investors became concerned about the impact of monetary policy.Investors were concerned about the impact of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) restrictive monetary policy on the U.S. economy.

In Europe, investors are awaiting the final PMI services index figures on Monday. The meeting of the Opec+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and 10 allied countries led by Russia, will also be closely watched amid soaring global energy prices. Russia is not in favor of an oil production cut at this stage and it is likely that Opec+ will decide to leave its production unchanged. Saudi Arabia recently floated the idea that Opec+ might consider cutting production. Opec members such as the Republic of Congo, Sudan and Equatorial Guinea have expressed openness to the idea, as they are already producing at maximum capacity and black gold prices have declined in recent weeks.

In Asia, the main indices are moving in a mixed bag on Monday. At the end of the session, the Nikkei index was little changed in Tokyo, while the Hang Seng of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange lost 1.6%. The Shanghai Composite was close to balance.

U.S. sovereign bond yields fell on Friday, as news of a limited increase in the U.S. unemployment rate reassured investors who feared the Federal Reserve would raise its tone further to curb inflation.

The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries rose a bit, a sign that the pessimism surrounding the economic outlook may be dissipating.

The dollar gained ground Monday against most other currencies, including the euro, and Bank of America expects it to remain strong this year as the U.S. labor market remains tight. For its part, the British pound fell to its lowest level against the greenback in more than 35 years, a sign that the British economy is going through a difficult period. The pound gave up 0.6 percent Monday morning to $1.1449, a level not seen since 1985. Its decline was due to the dollar's momentum, which caused the euro and yen to fall at rates not seen in decades.

Oil prices are rising Monday morning ahead of the monthly Opec+ meeting, which will discuss its production outlook. The group is expected to keep production unchanged, but its outlook for crude oil prices may remain upbeat, helping to support prices, ANZ says. At 7:30 a.m., the November contract for North Sea Brent crude was up $1.89, or 2 percent, at $94.90 a barrel, while the October contract for New York-listed light sweet crude (WTI) was up $1.61, or 1.9 percent, at $88.48 a barrel.

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