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OF Morning Bulletin

04/08/2022
Categories: General Information

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European stock markets are expected to rise ahead of the Bank of England's announcements. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,732.54 points (+1.30%), the CAC 40 at 6,472.06 points (+0.97%), the DAX 40 at 13,587.56 points (+1.03%), the FTSE 100 at 7,445.68 points (+0.49%), the SMI at 11,178.99 points (+0.55%), the AEX at 734.53 (+1.21%), the BEL 20 at 3,786.08 points (+1.74%), the IBEX 35 at 8,142.10 points (+0.56%), the DJIA at 32,812.50 points (+1.29%), the Nasdaq at 12,668.16 points (+2.59%), the S&P 500 at 4,155,17 points (+1.56%) and the Nikkei 225 at 27.959% 17,51 points (+0.63%)

As for exchange rates, the change from the close in New York indicates that EUR/USD remains stable at 1.0167, EUR/JPY opens at 135.88 (-0.10%) and USD/JPY at 133.70 (-0.13%).

European equity markets are expected to open higher on Thursday, as investors await the Bank of England's (BOE) monetary policy decision, scheduled for 13:00 (Paris time), and the publication of the monthly US employment report on Friday. Around 7:30am, the CAC 40 futures contract gained 16 points, or 0.3%, according to data from the IG Markets broker. The DAX contract increased by 65 points, or 0.5%, and the FTSE 100 contract increased by 10 points, or 0.1%. Markets expect the BOE to raise its key rate by 50 basis points to 1.75% on Thursday. The central bank should also indicate that it will begin an active quantitative tightening process in October, at a quarterly pace of 10 billion pounds sterling (12 billion euros), says Gurpreet Gill, macro strategist at Goldman Sachs.
The institution is also likely to raise its short-term and medium-term inflation forecasts and lower its economic growth forecasts for 2022, she adds. The BOE will continue to base its decisions on data and remain determined to take strong action if inflationary pressures persist, believes Gurpreet Gill.
Wall Street regained ground on Wednesday after two consecutive sessions of decline, supported by good business results. After a start to the week overshadowed by diplomatic tensions between the United States and China in response to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the Dow Jones Index (DJIA) finally rose 1.3%. The expanded S&P 500 index closed 1.6% higher. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.6%. In Asia, equity markets rose on Thursday. At the end of the session, the Nikkei index gained 0.6% in Tokyo and the Shanghai Composite gained 0.2%. The Hang Seng Index on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased by 1.6%.

U.S. Treasury bond yields rose for the second session in a row on Wednesday, after the release of an ISM Services Index showing that sector activity was more robust than expected in July in the United States. According to economists polled by the Wall Street Journal, weekly unemployment benefit claims, expected at 14:30 (Paris time), should have reached 260,000 last week, compared with 256,000 the week before. The report on non-agricultural employment in the United States is expected to report a slowdown in job creation to 258,000 in July from 372,000 in June, with the unemployment rate stable at 3.6%.

The euro changed little against the dollar on Thursday morning, which could later benefit from concerns about the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening. Fed officials continue to deliver a restrictive message, Kristina Clifton, an economist and currency strategist at CBA, points out in a study. Speeches by members of the Fed Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC), the FOMC report and the US Consumer Price Index next week should show that the federal funds rate has considerable room to increase compared to current levels, adds Kristina Clifton.

Oil contracts recovered slightly on Thursday morning, while the Nymex-listed light crude (WTI) contract ended Wednesday at its lowest level in nearly six months, as the US government's weekly inventory report reported an unexpected increase in crude and gasoline reserves in the United States last week. Current global supply and demand conditions and demand risks in the United States and China suggest that a barrel of oil could fall well below $90, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD. Around 7:30am, the October North Sea Brent contract earned 18 cents to $96.96 per barrel, while the September WTI contract increased by 32 cents to $90.98 per barrel.

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