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OF Morning Bulletin

19/08/2022
Categories: General Information

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At the opening, European equity markets should be hesitant. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,777.38 points (+0.57%), the CAC 40 at 6,557.40 points (+0.45%), the DAX 40 at 13,697.41 points (+0.52%), the FTSE 100 at 7,541.85 points (+0.35%), the SMI at 11,167.59 points (+0.35%), the AEX at 725.86 points (+0.35%), the AEX at 725.86 points (+0.35%) 38%), the BEL 20 at 3,804.09 points (-0.43%), the IBEX 35 at 8,430.30 points (-0.05%), the DJIA at 33,999.04 points (+0.06%), the Nasdaq at 12,965.34 points (+0.21%), the S&P 500 at 4,283.74 points (+0.23%), the Nikkei 225 at 28,928.34 points (-0.05%).

With regard to the exchange rate change from the close, mentions that in New York, EUR/USD is at 1.0077 (-0.11%), EUR/JPY at 137.28 (+0.14%), USD/JPY at 136.24 (+0.25%).

On Thursday evening, Valneva announced that it had begun the marketing authorization (MAM) process with the US Health Authority (FDA) for its single-shot chikungunya vaccine candidate (VLA1553) for people aged 18 years and over. As for Alstom, it announced on Thursday that it had received an order for 15 additional TGVs from SNCF for an amount of nearly 590 million euros. It should be remembered that the business and macroeconomic agenda is devoid of events this Friday.

At the opening, European equity markets are expected to evolve in a contrasting manner. Indeed, according to data from the IG Markets broker, the CAC 40 futures contract lost 18.9 points, or 0.3%, around 7:40am. The FTSE 100 increased by 3.7 points, or 0.1%, while the DAX 40 contract fell by 63 points, or 0.5%. Concerns about the monetary tightening process initiated by central banks are being used as excuses for profit-taking. Thus, the macro strategist at Deutsche Bank Henry Allen explains that: “After a strong interest in risky assets based on arguments that we have probably already passed the 'peak of inflation', Wednesday's session put a stop to it with multiple announcements that dampened the hope that central banks would soon stop their rate hikes.”

Furthermore, after a hesitant session on Thursday, the New York Stock Exchange closed slightly higher. With regard to interest rates, investors have been inactive while waiting for the next decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Thus, on Thursday, President Fed of Saint Louis said Thursday that he would defend another large-scale rate hike at upcoming monetary policy meetings, while considering it premature to say that the peak of inflation has passed in the United States.

On Friday, there was a slight increase in US Treasury bond yields. At 10 years, the rate of the US Treasury bond increased 2 basis points to a percentage of 2.903 and that of the 2-year bond increased by 3 basis points to 3.221%. Similarly, on Thursday, operators received attentively the remarks of the CEO Isabel Schnabel, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB). She noted in an interview with Reuters that there has been no improvement in the inflation outlook in the eurozone. Thus, it suggests that it was in favour of a further significant change in interest rates regardless of the increase in the risk of recession.

Like the note, the euro appreciates against the yen. However, it gave up some ground against the dollar on Friday morning. Following the restrictive remarks of several Federal Reserve officials, the dollar gained ground during the Asian session. Yeap Jun Rong, a strategist at IG, has reported that James Bullard, Chairman of the Saint Louis Fed, has indicated that he is in favor of raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September. Similarly, Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, said that a policy rate “a little bit” above 3% at the end of the year was necessary and rejected the idea of sharp rate falls in the coming year. It should be recalled that she is not voting on the Monetary Policy Committee this year.

On Friday morning, oil futures fell back and regained their breath after their advance the previous day. And in the United States, investors are absorbing the new data and highlighting a fall in crude stocks. However, Fitch Solutions believes that: “recession fears remain high for major markets, including the United States and the European Union, raising concerns about the strength of future oil demand.” Also, within the framework of an Iranian nuclear deal, the progress of the negotiations will be monitored by investors. The October Brent contract lost 41 cents to $96.18 per barrel, while in September, the New York-listed WTI contract lost 38 cents to $90.12 per barrel.

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