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Find all the economic and financial information on our Orishas Direct application to download on Play StoreMali, Jun 29 -- An economy with a high "resilience capacity", probably has mechanisms for detecting and anticipating difficulties: "to manage is to predict" it is said. Many countries have "environmental monitoring mechanisms": observatories, economic monitoring and security monitoring, for example, make it possible to anticipate environmental threats. Mechanisms such as "resilience funds" and "national security stocks" make it possible to deal with difficulties in the medium, short and very short term.
I – DES " DES FONDS DE RESILIENCE " .
In many countries with liberal economies, public policies concerned with the maintenance and continuation of economic activities, have set up "resilience funds" in so-called "strategic" branches of activity.
1.1. The "stabilization funds"
Number are the actors of the "filiére coton" who discovered or perceived the importance of the "Stabilization Fund" coton" during the crisis that the Malian Company for the Development of Textiles (CMDT) went through in the years 1996-1997. The courses of the coton on the world market melted, so that the Company could no longer buy the coton seed at the purchase prices agreed with the farmers at the beginning of the season. At these prices, CMDT would sell its finished product, the "cotton egrained" with "loss" on the world market of coton listed on the London Stock Exchange.
Whatever is to drop drastically, the purchase price to producers, the "Stabilization Fund Coton " set up to "guarantee", a minimum price should make it possible to maintain the agreed prices for the respective "three choices" and to safeguard the purchasing power of the peasants.
In Côte d'Ivoire, the "Caisse de Stabilisation Café – Cacao", would have delighted the producers of cacao and keep Côte d'Ivoire among the world's top three producers of cacao with Brazil and Ghana.
In our country, the operationalization of "resilience funds" poses serious problems. At the time of the mobilisation of the "stabilization fundcoton", what a surprise? This fund was no longer available.
Another worrying finding, "resilience funds" are in place for the survival and development of microfinance, a real mechanism for "financial inclusion", i.e. access to financial services for the "poor".
The many networks of "Decentralized Financial Systems" opened in the 2000s, are closing the doors one after the other. What is done with resilience funds, including the Rural Microfinance Programme (PMR)? The BMS that absorbed the BRS should be a "financing structure" of the Decentralized Financial Systems (DFS). In a merciless competition, SFDs have found themselves in financing that exceeds their capacity, including the financing of schools and Banks have not hesitated to prospect "informal" Entities, falling within the capacities of sfDs, with very high portfolio downside risks.
In these conditions, at what interest rates, banks can take advantage of SFDs that will in turn take their customers to be profitable? The financial costs in the end have become unbearable for DFS clients.
This country needs to be taken in hand. This will probably be done in pain, at the cost of great sacrifices. The day when the vast majority of Malians understand that no one will come to make Mali for them, and that they are making children who would risk living in poverty, they will react. Otherwise you might as well not have children. When your child comes home late, what does it do to you? To please yourself in the status quo and do nothing, it is possible that the worst will happen to them after your death.
1.2. "Guarantee funds"
The fight against youth unemployment is more than ever a priority in the public policies of modern states. Guarantee funds are support mechanisms for business creation and growth financing. The recovery of companies in difficulty in principle relegates the missions of "resilience funds".
By aid for business creation and financing of growth, in the form of guarantees offered to lender banks, "guarantee funds" help to expand the national "business ecosystem", thus boosting national production, thereby reducing the dice the country's external dependence, thus strengthening its "resilience capacity".
As their names indicate, "resilience funds" are real mechanisms that allow a state to resist and survive major shocks and crises. Many countries owe the level of development achieved by them through "resilience funds".
Beyond this classic mission, we propose that "guarantee funds" become more involved in the creation of Industrial Units, in the form of financing by "venture capital" by taking stakes in the share capital. Thus, they will be able to participate in the Board of Directors, to improve management and governance. Once the Unity is permanently on track, they withdraw.
II – THE "NATIONAL SECURITY STOCKS".
These are minimum stocks held, permanently, by the country to be able to cope with difficult situations. These include:
* the national food security stock, the amount of food the country must hold for example six (06) months. If the country is self-sufficient, this quantity is subtracted from consumption and exports. It must be physically available in stores. In the case of countries importing all its consumption such as ours, this quantity must be stored, so that the SNS can play its full role. Having the equivalent of the amount in the sum of money is not a good solution.
In the management of the Covid-19 pandemic, Malaysia, Vietnam, Russia have decided to voluntarily lower their exports of rice for the first two and wheat for Russia, to the point that the World Trade Organization (WTO) began to protest.
* the national hydrocarbon stock, the amount of fuel stocks that the country must hold in order to continue to operate normally, in case of supply difficulties for a period of three months for example.
After the national food safety stock, this national hydrocarbon safety stock seems to us the most important. Indeed, a shortage of hydrocarbons would affect the operation of power plants and the distribution of electricity to homes, factories and other companies, the country's car fleet, the generators of hospitals, hotels, companies, families. That is to say that it is the stop of all activity in the country that would find itself on its knees.
Beyond political slogans, it is of the utmost importance that the authorities take the country's "energy independence" head on by developing and diversifying energy sources: solar, biofuel, large-capacity depot constructions.
* the same applies to national stocks of medicines, fertilizers, etc.
Safeguard stocks are undoubtedly part of the tools of "resilience mechanisms" in the short term. Our country resembles an economic agent working in the "informal" who goes to the market every day to have the meals of tomorrow.
A country without a "national safety stock" is permanently in danger of asphyxiation.
In France, during the long social crisis of the "yellow vests", we heard an official say that the country was not at risk of hydrocarbon supply problems, because it had at least three to four months of consumption.
In the United States, whenever oil prices become unbearable for corporate performance, the government threatens to resort to the exploitation of its "oil reserves".
In view of an exit from the F CFA, we do not cease to recommend, to the Authorities, the constitution of "national safety stocks" to inevitably face the shock following this abandonment, even if it is long programmed
Industrialization is undoubtedly the first "succeeding key" to a country's economic resilience. When a country produces and manufactures "on the spot" most of what people consume, it withstands a lot of shocks. Iran must serve as a lesson to us African countries. The resistance to the embargo that "is imposed on it", even, for many Western analysts and observers, is that the Islamic Republic produces and manufactures most of its national consumption. It is certain that the factories whose raw materials are imported suffer a lot, but the country is also a major oil producer to the point that observers have raised the possibility of "oil for raw materials" like the UN "oil for food" program in Iraq. Finally, monetary sovereignty helps enormously this country which has its "Iranian Rial", which it manages as it pleases.
The expression "made on site" has gained all its importance, with Covid-19. Indeed, manufacturing industries (masks and respirators) relocated in the context of globalization, have been unable to supply their own countries. Worse, they would be bought by local investors in the host country.
III – "WATCH AND SURVEILLANCE" STRUCTURES TO INCREASE SHOCK RESISTANCE.
In an increasingly risky environment, where risks are increasingly transnational, "Standby" is an effective "resilience mechanism".
2.1. The "Economic Watch": the Observatories.
An effective management system requires anticipation of internal and external difficulties that may arise to the Entity, in the country.
Control of operating and operating conditions are sufficient to anticipate internal difficulties. By way of illustration, an informed, competent manager is likely to detect strike movements in advance to defuse. Through an "objective" analysis of work difficulties, he knows how to anticipate difficulties, serialize them, to quickly resolve those that could lead to the cessation of production and / or operation of the Entity.
As for "external" difficulties, they very generally depend on the evolution of the environment, that is to say all national and international laws, regulatory texts of a commercial, financial, technological nature, calamities, etc., anything beyond the control of the country or Entity.
The techniques for detecting and anticipating consequences are numerous. They can be summed up in the establishment of "observatories" and "economic monitoring" structures.
By observing the evolution of facts, statistical trends, through in-depth studies on the Community and global environment, the structures responsible for "Economic Watch" are "alert mechanisms" of the Authorities on the risks and threats that could weigh on the country.
We could cite the National Observatory of Employment and Training (Onef), by relevant analyses on the "classification of the unemployed": unemployment of first job, unemployment of former workers, unemployed precariousness, level of training of the unemployed, Training specialties, etc., this Observatory is a real advice to the Government and can contribute to the adequacy "Programs-Jobs" thus improving the employability of graduates of our Schools and Universities.
We could also mention the Sustainable Human Development Observatory (ODHD), which advises on the level of poverty by sector and branch of activity, by locality, age, sex, etc. Its reports are accompanied by proposals for short- and medium-term solutions, long-term recommendations, all of which contribute to poverty reduction in the country.
Ocune d'Ivoire has just set up a National Population Observatory, to know the level of evolution of the population and the corresponding infrastructure needs. Until the very recent past, the word "Malians from the outside" meant, in Malian schools, the students who put themselves at the window to take the course.
2.2. "Security Watch": we make peace by preparing for war"
Populations need peace of mind to work in serenity, move peacefully around the national territory for their personal and professional activities: delivery of goods, visits, etc.
Slamation is a key factor in the development of a country. It is very difficult to envisage development in insecurity. For this, a state must control its borders to constantly know the entry and exit of its own populations, but especially foreigners.
I was in Nouakchott in February 2018, in the administrative formalities of the "Police des frontiéres", a "yellow document" is filled in at the entrance, which you will have to present at the departure of the country. In this way, the country's air borders are controlled. We know constantly, the foreigners living on the territory, their professions and the reasons for their travels.
How many foreigners live on Malian soil? Clever one who can answer this question. I made several times the trip Bamako -Ouagadougou, by car, what surprise? No control at the HEREMAKONO border, so much so that a member of the team, an angry business leader, called the Regional Director of Homeland Security in Sikasso. And from Sikasso to Bamako we were not subject to any control. We have forgotten Mali while looking for our small individual comforts.
The State must identify each Malian through "civil documents" such as the National Identity Card, and control the movements of populations within borders. "Residence cards for foreigners are part of this system of identification of persons living in the territory". Security in cities is the responsibility of the National Police, and security between cities is the responsibility of the National Gendarmerie.
Security within the country and at the borders is a necessary condition for development. Any state that sleeps in this matter would quickly be invaded, destabilized and its populations pushed on the roads of exodus and refugees.
In the framework of the Treaty of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), each State must set up a "National Early Warning and Security Risk Response Mechanism" to collect information and data that may constitute threats good governance, security and peace.
The effectiveness of resilience mechanisms, in general and economic and security "watches", in particular, depends on the ability of the structure's facilitators to:
* set up a good information system, capable of collecting information throughout the national territory,
* centralizes, classifyes and processes the information collected in real time,
* conduct quality analyses,
* match reports with relevant proposals and recommendations.
Which requires human resources of great skills with adequate means. If the authorities do not trust the recommendations, it is certain that they will never implement them. In these cases, it is better to remove the structure that becomes a budgetary "bureaucracy", very costly for public finances.
In conclusion, in private management, creating an Entity and developing it requires the implementation of tools and mechanisms to face competition and resist external crises. The same applies to States. We have forgotten these rules of precaution and survival, we have lost control of our country.
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