Trained in the mold of the IMF, a world-renowned economist, it is not surprising that the recipes used by Alassane Ouattara to redress the country are neoliberal. The results obtained, at the economic level, from 2011 to 2019, testify to the effectiveness of these recipes.

The Ivory Coast of the years 2000-2010 had become a bankrupt country with whole sections of the economy and the sovereign state (health, education, etc.) sacrificed. Throughout the years 2011-2020, the return of peace, political stability, massive investments by the State and the improvement of the business climate have enabled an upturn in the economy that no one disputes. With impressive growth rates since 2011, often in double digits, low inflation, bearable debt, the Ivorian economy has once again become the leading French-speaking economy in West Africa. There is talk of the second "Ivorian miracle" after the one carried out in the years 1960-1970 under the active governance of Houphouët-Boigny (1).

The social impact of Ivorian growth seems to have remained weak in terms of job creation and improvement of living conditions. Ivorians do not find, on their plates, the benefits of strong and continuous growth. The difficulty for Côte d'Ivoire, whose economy remains fragile because it is indexed to the price of raw materials, is to combine economic development and social progress at the same time. The choice that has been made since 2011 has been to consolidate the economy. The social discontent that grew in 2016 and the mutinies of 2017 showed the limits of the liberal promise. The 2020-2025 five-year period must be built on the strengthening of economic and social orientations.

The characteristics and limits of the "Ivorian miracle" under Ouattara

The second “Ivorian miracle”, under the Ouattara era, is based on three characteristics: public investments, recourse to debt and FDI (Foreign Direct Investments). The National Development Plan (PND) for the period 2012-2015, extended from 2016 to 2020, endowed with 30,000 billion CFA francs, has made it possible to increase public investment from 2.5% to 6% of GDP. Low inflation and a public debt which, in 2018, represented only 40% of GDP, a surplus in the trade balance, in particular due to cocoa exports, a sector supported by the State: all this means that the macro seers -economic of Côte d'Ivoire, before the impact caused by the health and social crisis of Covid 19, are green. But, the limits of this second "Ivorian miracle" are obvious, they are due to the following realities: strong growth is generated by massive public investment; the social impact of growth remains insufficient: the decline in poverty is not obvious to everyone.

Towards new economic and social directions

Alassane Ouattara is perfectly aware that he must move, from the start of his third term, towards new economic and social orientations. It must get out of dependence on public procurement, intensify social action, while consolidating the return of the state.

Get out of dependence on public order

If the Ivorian economy remains fragile, it is because it depends on public procurement. It is not diversified enough. There is not, in the private sector, a dense network of SMEs/SMIs and local champions capable of creating, through a processing industry, added value and jobs.

The project is taking shape in the cocoa and cashew sectors. Alassane Ouattara's third term should focus on developing the private sector by creating the conditions that allow entrepreneurs to invest and grow.

Intensify social action

The social discontent and the strikes which punctuated the second term of Alassane Ouattara had led the government to open a real social dialogue with the representative organizations of employees and the trade unions of civil servants. There is an urgent need: to improve the social impact of government action and to make this impact perceptible. The Government's 2019-2020 Social Program should be extended and amplified, in order to meet the expectations of Ivorians by allowing them to access basic services, by stepping up the fight against poverty and by better supporting the most vulnerable populations. destitute.

Consolidate the return of the state

The bad side of liberalism tends to favor trickle-down theory. This theory, which reappeared in the 1980s with the very liberal economic policies implemented by Ronald Reagan in the United States and by Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom, claims that the wealthiest, through consumption and investment, create jobs and wealth. This theory turns out to be wrong. Our era, with the end of the myth of "happy globalization" and the emergence of a planetary pandemic like Covid 19, is characterized by the return of the State-strategist and the State-protector. The State is the guarantor of the general interest. Houphouët-Boigny, the socialist, had converted to liberalism. The liberal Alassane Ouattara converted to the return of the State to face the triple challenge of international economic competition, the maintenance of social cohesion and reconciliation.

Who can deny that Côte d'Ivoire needs, in the short term of the 2020-2025 five-year term and in the long term, a forward-looking vision of history, as Wakili Alafé says in his editorial (on page 4- 5 of this magazine), a strong and effective state?

Christian Gambotti,

University graduate,

President of the think tank

Africa & Sharing-

CEO of CERAD (Center for Studies and Research on the Africa of Tomorrow) -

Director of the Collections L'Afrique en Marche, Francophone Planet -

Managing Editor

of the magazine Parliaments & African Powers.

___________________________

(1) There is talk of an "Ivorian miracle" in connection with the period of economic prosperity that occurred in Côte d'Ivoire in the 1960s and 1970s. The active governance of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who reaps the revenue from the rise in the price of raw materials, in particular coffee and cocoa, has made it possible to achieve this “Ivorian miracle” in many areas. At the time, Côte d'Ivoire benefited from the instability of surrounding countries (slump in Guinea under Sékou Touré, instability in Ghana, war in Nigeria, coup d'etat in Mali, etc.). Economic activity is transferred to it at a time when Western countries are experiencing strong growth.