The 2021 finance law provides for budgetary expenditures at about 8113 billion dinars, while overall tax revenues are estimated at 5328 billion dinars.

The big problem that arises with the PLF 2021: will it be in line with the global crisis due to the coronavirus epidemic that affects all the countries of the world and not only Algeria mono exporter and Algeria will it not be forced to resort to a complementary finance law in June 2021? This is because hydrocarbons represent with derivatives 98% of foreign exchange earnings, 33% of which come from natural gas. However, the latest data from the ONS of 7 November 2020 are worrying and this decline, due to the weakness of non-hydrocarbon exports, in addition to the delay in internal structural reforms, impacts the Algerian economy and influences the growth rate, the unemployment rate and the level of foreign exchange reserves that hold the dinar quote at more than 70% (our interview Monde.fr/AFP Paris 10/08/2020)
The ONS data of 7 December 2020 contradict both the 2020 supplementary finance law and the optimistic forecasts of the PLF 2021. According to the ONS, during the first six months, the volume of Algerian exports decreased by 35.9% to total 1365.0 billion DA, or during 128 dinars one dollar, 10.66 billion dollars against 2129.8 billion DA in the same period 18.04 billion dollars of the year 2019, of which 98% with derivatives come from Sonatrach. As for imports, they reached 2,128.4 billion DA during the first six months of the current year, 18.03 billion dollars against 2,660.0 billion DA or 22.24 billion dollars in the same period in 2019. These developments led to a widening "of the trade deficit which went from 530.2 billion DA) 4.5 billion DA, and in the 1st half of 2019 to (-763.4 billion DA) in the same period of the current year, 6.5 billion dollars, amount to which must be added services, no less than 4/5 billion dollars, recalling that this item caused an outflow of currency between 10/12 billion dollars / year between 2010/2019. However, paradoxically, without specifying the dynamic sectors for 2021 as a currency saving factor or concrete actions against overbilling, the 2021 finance law is in contradiction with these recent data from the ONS. These are only hypotheses because the big problem is that the productive fabric will be energized in the meantime. Also, the objective of achieving the symbiosis between macroeconomic and social balances will be a difficult exercise without a return to growth conditioned both by internal public/private and international productive investment, assuming a return to the growth of the world economy and at the internal level the removal of bureaucratic obstacles, the fight against corruption, better management and a profound change in socio-economic policy. The 2021 finance law provides for a 14.4% decrease in imports in current value compared to the 2020 end, to reach $28.21 billion. $27.39 billion in 2022 and $27.01 billion in 2023, and national economic growth of 3.98% in 2021, after a decline of 4.6%, according to fiscal year 2020 closing estimates.
The PLF2021 forecasts budgetary expenditures (operating and capital expenditures) at about 8113 billion dinars, while overall tax revenues (ordinary and oil) are estimated at 5328 billion dinars, a record budget deficit of 2784.8 billion dinars or during 128 dinars a dollar more than 21.75 billion dollars against 238/1.5 billion dollars at the end of 2020 or 18.60 billion dollars. The overall deficit of the Treasury forecast is 3614.4 billion dinars or 28.26 billion dollars, 17.6% of GDP, with an increase in non-targeted social transfers estimated by the PLF2021 to 1927.5 billion dinars or 15.06 billion dollars up 79.98 billion dinars compared to the 2020 finance law, of which 63.8% are destined for housing and health. And as in past years without analyzing the real impacts. Strongly connected to the world economy via hydrocarbon exports, the main reason for this socio-economic situation is the decline in hydrocarbon revenues due to the coronavirus epidemic, but also new trends in the new model of energy consumption at the global level with public expenditure which remains the essential factor of the Economic growth, However, the PFL2021 forecasts a decrease in oil taxation estimated at 1919.2 billion dinars (artificially inflated by the slippage of the dinar against the oil dollar / denominated in dollars of at least 10%), against 2667 in 2019, a decrease of 748.8 billion dinars. The impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the global economy will depend on the vaccine, the latest optimistic news of which has led to a rise in the price of hydrocarbons. The American election is decisive because the victory is that of the Democrats who have another vision of energy policy, with the return of the USA to the Paris COP21 agreements and the development of alternative energies to conventional fossils. Sonatrach's revenues from which it would be necessary to withdraw the costs and shares of the partners to have the net profit, against about $ 34 billion in 2019, it should be between $ 19/20 billion at the end of 2020 under the assumption of an average price of $ 35/37 in the second half of 2020 for oil. (...) For the 2020 forecasts, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downwards its growth forecasts for the Algerian economy to -5.5% in 2020, expecting a growth rate of 3.2% in 2021. The 2021 finance bill is more optimistic forecasting a national economic growth of 4.0%, despite the hibernation of the majority of productive segments a non-hydrocarbon growth of 2.4% in 2021, 3.37% in 2022 and 3.81% in 2023%. These optimistic results are difficult to achieve, because a project, profitable within the framework of international values, does not reach the break-even point for SMI-SMEs until after three years and for highly capital-intensive segments between 5/7 years subject to the removal of bureaucratic obstacles. Also, the Algerian economy will be dependent for a long time on an oil price above 50/60 dollars, the drastic decline in imports of goods and services having limits, integration rate not exceeding 15/20% some items being incompressible even if it means suffocating the entire existing productive apparatus. This will have an impact on the unemployment rate. As a result, we are witnessing an increase in the unemployment rate where for the IMF, it should reach 14.1% in 2020 and 14.3% in 2021.
This situation affects the level of foreign exchange reserves in 2020-2011. According to the IMF, Algeria needs a barrel of more than $135 in 2021 and according to the specialized site, Oil Price, $157.2 to balance its budget. the price per barrel set by the 2020 finance law of 30 dollars, tax price and 35 dollars market price, the PLF 2021 40 dollars, is only an accounting artifice. Taking the opposite of international forecasts, the PLF 2021 forecasts foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2021 at 46.8 billion dollars, ensuring imports and services for 16 months and this continuation, still according to optimistic forecasts not supported by tangible facts, to the expected improvement in the balance of payments deficit that is expected to reach -3.6 MDS in 2021 and with foreign exchange reserve thresholds of 47.53 billion dollars in 2022 and 50.02 MDS in 2023. How will this be feasible given both the unfavourable international and internal economic conditions in which the majority of the productive sectors, apart from agriculture, are in hibernation? Without energizing the productive apparatus, we will witness hyperinflation. In conclusion, the twenty-first century will be marked by "permanent innovation, A great challenge awaits the Algeria of tomorrow, a challenge within its reach because of its important potentialities. The future socio-economic policy will have to take into account the new global changes focused on the digital and energy transition, the request for revision by Algeria of certain clauses of the Association Agreement with Europe, negotiations still ongoing, for a winning partnership, geostrategic tensions in the Mediterranean, the Sahel and Libya. Hence the urgency of deepening internal institutional and micro-economic reforms, driven by new social forces, because the power of a nation and its social prosperity are measured by its economy.