The G20 initiative to suspend debt service between June and December 2020 divided the continent into two parts: 23 and 13 declining. The former believe that the measure, valued globally at $12.1 billion, is not sufficiently attractive from a financial point of view and exposes them to a depreciation of their ratings. The latter make their own the African proverb that says that "fish caught with the hand is safer than fish under the foot" and sign.

13 countries have not subscribed

For example, Nigeria  gave up signing, depriving itself of $107 million equivalent to less than 0.1% of its GDP. In civil war since 1992, Somalia declined the G20 offer. Another country that has not subscribed to the measure is South Sudan, independent since 2011 and where the World Bank indicates no parameters for assessing the rating.  Guinea Bissau and Liberia also declined the offer, which would have earned them only 0.1% of their PIBs, or $900,000 and $1.8 million respectively.  Rwanda and its moderate risk debt profile is in the same situation, renouncing a measure that would have brought it only $12.6 million or 0.1% of GDP.  Benin also declined the operation that would have earned it $ 13 million or 0.1% of its GDP. Refusal also noted in Burundi, which would have thus renounced 0.1% of its GDP, the equivalent of 3.9 million dollars.

The impact of the G20 initiative is just as limited for Madagascar , which has declined the initiative estimated at 0.2% of its GDP, or 24 million dollars. Ditto for Lesotho which has not signed the initiative, turning its back on an impact of 9.5 million dollars for 0.3% of GDP. This is the same level as Uganda, another non-signatory country, which gives up 0.3% of GDP or 95.6 million dollars. Also reluctant, Kenya thus renounces measures valued at $ 800 million or 0.8% of its GDP.

23 countries have signed

For their part, the countries that have subscribed to the G20 initiative have done the opposite calculation, benefiting from immediate measures even if it means having to bear a depreciation of their respective financial ratings. Thus, Burkina Faso subscribed to the initiative, saving $ 23.3 million or 0.2% of its GDP. Same relative impact (0.2%) of Malawi which secures 17.1 million dollars or Sierra Leone where the impact does not exceed 7 million dollars. At the same level, the DRC secures 0.2% of its GDP for an estimated impact of $104 million. For its part, Tanzania which signed reduced its GDP by 0.2% for 148 million dollars. The Central African Republic and Niger subscribed for 0.3% of their GDP with impacts of $6.3 million and $25.8 million respectively. The Comoros get 0.3% of their GDP or 2.3 million dollars.  Mali also sees the measure impact its GDP by 0.3% for 52.3 million dollars. Another country that has subscribed to the initiative is Chad , which obtains a relief of 61 million dollars or 0.5% of its GDP. An impact similar to that of Côte d'Ivoire, with a moderate profile, with 0.5% of GDP equivalent to 231 million dollars. Or Senegal , which benefits from an impact of $131 million representing 0.5% of GDP.

 Togo , which has a high overall debt level, is in the same level of impact (0.5%) for a relief of 25.8 million dollars. Classified as a high-risk country, Ghana saves $368.8 million for 0.5% of its GDP. Zambia  subscribed to the programme for $142.6 million or 0.6% of GDP. Guinea  relieves its economy for the equivalent of 1% of its GDP representing 126.1 million dollars. Ethiopia saves 0.6% of its GDP for $570 million.  Cape Verde saves 0.7% of its GDP or $14.9 million. Cameroon has an impact of $276 million or 0.7% of its GDP. Same level as that recorded by The Gambia, a country with high debt that pushes a sigh of relief for 11.5 million dollars or 0.7% of GDP.

The only country in the Central African region in a situation of over-indebtedness according to the World Bank, Congo obtains 146.2 million dollars equivalent to 1.3% of its GDP. Also at high risk of indebtedness, Mauritania benefits from 90 million dollars, or 1.6% of its GDP.  Mozambique classified as "in a situation of over-indebtedness" garners the equivalent of 1.9% at 292 million dollars. A country at risk of high debt, Djibouti saves 2.5% of its GDP for the equivalent of $59.2 million. The impact of the G20 initiative on Angola, estimated at 3.7% of GDP, is $3.4 billion, the World Bank estimates in a new report.

As a reminder, in April 2020, the Development Committee, a joint body of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the G20 Finance Ministers validated the implementation of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative, following the appeal launched by the World Bank and the IMF in favour of the poorer, to help them cope with the severe consequences of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. The call, which calls for broad and equitable participation, urges all bilateral official creditors to act quickly to allow low-income countries to focus their resources on fighting the pandemic. The G20 also called on all private creditors to participate in this process on a comparable basis, a small sentence that alerted the rating agencies, which have since been quite conservative vis-à-vis the reassessment of credit ratings.