The calm on the FOREX contrasts with the euphoria that rules over equities (the Nasdaq smashes record after record on the eve of the "bridge" of July 4) and this appetite for risk does not even penalize the bondholder with T- Bonds rising as if Wall Street were on the contrary in symmetrical decline.

The average remuneration of the Euro fell by -5Pts this Thursday evening, those of US T-Bonds by -1.5Pts.
The differential is therefore in favor of the $, which benefits very marginally with a gain of +0.1% against the Euro at 1.1235 (same difference of +0.1% against the Yen at 107.5): we can exclude that this is a credible cause of the variation of the greenback which remains stable against the Swiss franc and the pound sterling.

Currency traders do not really seem to believe in the small miracle of 4.8 million jobs created in the United States in June (this is 50% more than expected by the consensus).
But above all, ADP had identified the day before only +2,369,000 jobs in the American private sector (against 3,000,000 anticipated), a figure which does not include civil servants, of course.

In reality, the 4.8 million jobs are only an "extrapolation" from data whose collection stopped on June 13... a very small detail certainly.

The unemployment rate stands at 11.3% against 12.5% expected, but there again, there appears to be a huge "gap" compared to the cumulative weekly data: last week, for example, the number of claimants only fell by -55,000 compared to the previous week which was already disappointing (at 1.427 million against 1.482 Mns) while the total number of compensations is still around 20 million (and no reduction observed at the end of June).
How could 4.8 million jobs be created without weekly unemployment falling by at least 200,000 each week?

The NFP is so "thunderous" (regardless of its credibility) that it crushes all other economic data, such as the US trade deficit which widened by +9.7% to -54.6 billion in May 2020, according to the US Department of Commerce, against -49.8 billion the previous month (revised upwards from -49.4 billion in initial estimate) while the consensus anticipated it down $52 billion in may.
In France, housing starts are in free fall of -44% over the period March/April/May, applications for building permits have plunged by -40%.