Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, has just released a list of the ten most significant global threats of this year. If the Covid-19 pandemic continues to make the news, the arrival of Biden at the head of a divided America and the fight against climate change will bring their share of challenges.

The consulting company Eurasia Group published Monday, January 4 an assessment of what it considers to be the ten major risks that the world will face in 2021. The firm surprised from the start by assigning the first place, the biggest threat of the year when Joe Biden came to power.

© REUTERS / JONATHAN ERNST Trump promises to present the “real” results of the US presidential election

While the Democrat received more than 80 million votes, more than any other President-elect, Donald Trump's refusal to accept his victory on suspicion of voter fraud puts him in an awkward position, almost seen as illegitimate by half the country, considers Eurasia Group. He will thus take office in the most powerful country in the world, but also the most politically divided and the most economically unequal.

The pandemic continues

The Covid-19 pandemic naturally has its place among the major difficulties for at least the first half of this year. Vaccination campaigns launched in several countries should eliminate neither the virus nor its consequences, in particular economic ones. A legacy of particularly high debt will lead to an even greater division of society between rich and poor, predicts Eurasia.

Fight against climate change

The third point is devoted to the climate, on which the Biden administration should be more active. However, in the area of renewable energy, the United States will compete with China, which currently dominates at all levels, from supply chain to infrastructure. Competition between these two giants will be tough to dominate this space, the consultancy warns.

Seven other risks

This leads to the fourth risk: the growing tensions between Washington and Beijing, not only in the context of competition over green technologies, but also on the diplomatic level. The two countries will seek to gain influence, in particular through anti-Covid vaccines.

© AP PHOTO / VADIM GHIRDA A German general names Russia as the “main” threat to NATO

Eurasia Group continues its list with the difficulties of controlling the flow of digital information. With the arrival of 5G and the development of artificial intelligence, governments will be more concerned about access to their citizens' data. In sixth place, the threat of a "cyber conflict" with unprecedented technological and geopolitical consequences.

The company also predicts an economic recession of Middle Eastern countries due to low oil prices, growing problems in the Turkish economy due to Erdogan's policies.

She finally evokes a Europe weakened with the departure of Angela Merkel after 15 years in power and concludes her list with the political, social and economic problems which will return with renewed vigor in Latin America as was the case before the pandemic.