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Suez Canal: Geopolitical tensions drive markets despite recovery

01/04/2021
Source : ORISHAS FINANCE
Categories: General Information

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The resumption of activities risks stalling as more than 450 ships, including around 30 oil tankers, are immobilized at the level of the Suez Canal through which nearly 12% of trade passes. Markets find themselves in the midst of geopolitical tensions.

Readjustments due, among other things, to asset reallocation movements partly explain the dollar's rebound. The upward momentum since the beginning of the year and the sector rotations observed on the US equity market have been interrupted.
America is directly opposed to China on the question of human rights and economic hegemony by attempting a rapprochement with Japan, Korea and India. Europe is rallying to the condemnations of China and cast a chill after the bilateral investment agreement concluded last month. Cooperation with Taiwan or Korea for the production of semiconductors stirs the ire of the Chinese authorities. TSMC and Samsung are planning to set up factories in the United States and are fighting over some 30 billion dollars in American subsidies.
On the financial markets, flows invested in Treasuries ETFs have become positive again. The T-note briefly traded below 1.60% before yields rose again after another tough 7-year Treasuries auction ($62 billion).
The US 10yr is stabilizing around 1.65%, some 10bp below March highs. The yen's unusual weakness as we approach the end of the fiscal year may be the result of these international arbitrages. The 10-30yr spread stabilized around 70bp.

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