Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to experience a moderate recovery in 2021, with a growth rate of 2.7%. The World Bank, which gives this figure, nevertheless specifies that the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is exposed to several risks of deterioration, in particular the growth of the main trading partners which could be lower than forecast, the distribution of a vaccine against Covid- 19 which will probably come up against many obstacles such as the insufficiency of transport infrastructure and the lack of capacity of health systems, the sustainability of public debt, among others.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to experience economic growth of 2.7% in 2021. This is the projection issued by the World Bank in its latest edition of the "Global Economic Prospects". Indeed, it confides in this report published yesterday that the recovery of consumption and private investment could be slower than previously forecast, but exports should gradually accelerate, thanks to the revival of the activities of the main partners. commercial.

According to the World Bank, forecasts of sluggish growth in sub-Saharan Africa are due to the persistence of the Covid-19 pandemic in several countries, which is hampering the recovery of economic activity. According to projections, the pandemic will cause a 0.2% drop in per capita income this year, and put the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) even further out of reach for many countries in the region. This reversal of the trend, the institution continues, should lead to the tipping of tens of millions of additional people into extreme poverty in 2020 and 2021.

The World Bank report highlights that Nigeria is expected to post 1.1% growth in 2021. Also, it notes, economic activity could however be hampered by low oil prices, oil quotas. 'OPEC, the fall in public investment resulting from weak state revenues, the lack of private investment due to corporate bankruptcies and the lack of confidence among foreign investors. In South Africa, the document notes, growth is expected to rebound to 3.3% in 2021, with a weaker recovery than previously anticipated due to the lingering effects of the pandemic and the likely continuation of several risk mitigation measures. spread of the virus.

For the World Bank, the recovery should be slightly more sustained (although less than historical averages) in agricultural exporting countries, where activity will be driven by the high level of world prices for agricultural commodities. “The forecasts point to a more timid recovery for exporters of industrial products,” insists the institution. Who adds that while metal prices recovered slightly in the second half of last year, oil prices remained well below what they were in 2019, which had adverse consequences for exporters oil companies (Angola, Republic of Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, Chad).

"The outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is exposed to several downside risks," the World Bank said. According to which the growth of the main trading partners could be lower than forecast. But also, according to her, the large-scale distribution of a vaccine against Covid-19 in the region will likely face many obstacles, including inadequacies in transport infrastructure and the lack of capacity of health systems. AND to add: “These difficulties, further aggravated by natural disasters, such as the recent floods which have caused considerable damage, and the increase in insecurity, in particular in the Sahel, could delay the recovery.

The said obstacles do not stop there because, "the public debt has increased considerably in the region, to reach, according to estimates, 70% of the GDP on average during the past year, which only increases the concerns about debt sustainability in some countries. Also, according to the same source, banks could experience a sharp increase in non-performing loans, as companies struggle to service their debt due to falling revenues.

“The lasting negative effects of the pandemic could slow long-term growth due to the scale of the debt, which cripples investment, the impact of confinements on schooling and the development of human capital, and the deterioration in the state of health of populations,” concludes the World Bank.