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Find all the economic and financial information on our Orishas Direct application to download on Play StoreStocks are expected to jump at the opening, the Fed dismisses the idea of a 75 basis point rate hike. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,724.99 points (-0.96%), the CAC 40 at 6,395.68 points (-1.24%), the DAX 40 at 13,970.82 points (-0.49%), the FTSE 100 at 7,493.45 points (-0.90%), the SMI at 11,880.24 points (-1.01%), the AEX at 698.68 points (-1.03%), the BEL 20 at 4,065.34 points (-0.31%), the IBEX 35 at 8,500.50 points (-1.04%), the DJIA at 34,061.06 points (+2.81%), the Nasdaq at 12,964.86 points (+3.19%), the S&P 500 at 4,300.17 points (+2.99%) and the Nikkei 225 at 26,818.53 points (-0.11%).
As far as exchange rates are concerned, the change from the close in New York indicates that EUR/USD at 1.0617 (-0.06%), EUR/JPY at 137.25 (+0.09%) and USD/JPY at 129.28 (+0.14%).
The earnings season continues on Thursday with the quarterly accounts of Societe Generale, Crédit Agricole SA, Legrand, ArcelorMittal, Air France-KLM, Arkema, SES, Valneva and ALD. Stellantis, AXA and Rubis present their revenues for the first three months of fiscal 2022. Engie is organising a presentation on its activities in renewable energies in the presence of its Managing Director, Catherine McGregor. Schneider Electric, Technip Energies and CGG hold a general meeting of their shareholders. On the macroeconomic front, industrial production figures for March are expected at 8:45 a.m. The Treasury Agency also plans France issue between €10 billion and €11 billion of equivalent Treasury bonds (OAT) maturing in 2032, 2040 and 2053.
European equity markets are expected to open sharply higher on Thursday, as investors are reassured by the words of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), who dismissed the idea of a 75 basis point increase in interest rates in the next months. At 7:25 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract gained 140 points, or 2.2%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The CONTRACT on the DAX 40 was up 307 points, or 2.2%, and the FTSE 100 contract was up 82 points, or 1.1%.
At the end of Wednesday's meeting, the federal funds rate, the main benchmark for overnight interbank lending, is in a range between 0.75% and 1%, instead of 0.25%-0.5% so far. The discount rate also increases by half a point, to 1%. Last month, Jerome Powell had already deemed "probable" an increase of this magnitude, a first since the year 2000 for the Fed, which generally favors more measured adjustments, of a quarter of a point. After recording in March the first rate hike in three years in the United States, Fed officials have indicated in recent weeks that they could repeatedly resort to increases of 50 basis points this year, an unusual trajectory justified by the persistence of a price increase well above the central bank's target of 2% per year.
According to the FedWatch tool of the stock exchange operator CME, calculated from the evolution of rate futures, a large majority of investors expected before Wednesday's meeting a rate hike of 75 basis points in June. But the probability of a hike of this magnitude dropped to zero after Jerome Powell's statements. Against this backdrop, Wall Street ended sharply higher on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) jumped 2.8% to 34,061.06 points and the broader S&P 500 index soared nearly 3% to 4,300.19 points. The nasdaq Composite, rich in technology stocks, gained 3.2% to 12,964.86 points.
The OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting, a group composed of the 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and ten allied countries led by Russia, will also be followed. Following the strategy undertaken for several months, the group should announce a further moderate increase in its production, in accordance with the plan put in place last year to return to production levels similar to those before the health crisis. In Asia, the main stock exchanges are trading in the green on Thursday. At the end of the session, the Hang Seng index gained 0.4% in Hong Kong, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.8% for its first session of the week. Financial markets are still closed in Japan. They will reopen on Friday.
US Treasury yields lost ground on Wednesday after Jerome Powell's remarks. The yield on the two-year bond, most closely linked to the Fed's short-term monetary policy, posted its biggest decline since February.
The euro fell slightly Thursday morning against the dollar, catching its breath after jumping the day before. The sell-off of the dollar was prompted by comments by Jerome Powell, who dismissed the idea of a 75 basis point rate hike and acknowledged the existence of global risks, said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management. In addition, its room for manoeuvre to raise rates is likely to be limited by the cost-of-living crisis, caused by the combination of high energy prices and the UK's exit from the European Union.
Nulate oil futures are rising on Thursday, still supported by the European Union's proposal to ban Russian oil imports, while operators await the OPEC+ meeting. At 7:15 a.m., the July contract for North Sea Brent gained 58 cents to $110.72 a barrel and the June contract for Nymex-listed light sweet crude (WTI) gained 39 cents to $108.20 a barrel.
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