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Find all the economic and financial information on our Orishas Direct application to download on Play StoreThe European stock markets will try to stabilize after two sessions of decline. The Eurostoxx 50 opened at 3,567.56 points (-0.52%), the CAC 40 at 6,222.41 points (-0.37%), the DAX 40 at 13.028.00 points (-1.22%), the FTSE 100 at 7,277.30 points (-1.47%), the SMI at 10,754.40 points (-1.26%), the AEX at 680.86 points (-0.49%), the BEL 20 at 3.606.40 points (-0.91%), the IBEX 35 at 8,055.60 points (-0.10%), the DJIA at 31,135.09 points (+0.10%), the Nasdaq at 11,719.68 points (+0.74%), the S&P 500 at 3,946.01 points (+0.34%) and the Nikkei 225 at 27,879.22 points (+0.22%).
As for the exchange rate, the change from the close in New York shows EUR/USD opening at 0.9972 (-0.09%), EUR/JPY at 142.97 (+0.06%) and USD/JPY at 143.38 (+0.15%).
Investors will follow the final consumer price index for August on Thursday. The first estimate from the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), published on August 31, showed a slight slowdown in inflation in France to 5.8% year-on-year in August, following a 6.1% rise in July. In a context of high inflation and slowing economy in the euro zone, the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, said Wednesday that the "neutral" interest rate, which neither stimulates nor slows growth, could be reached by the end of 2022 in the region.
On the corporate side, Virbac presented its half-yearly accounts, while ADP Group published its traffic figures in August. Vinci announced on Wednesday evening that the passenger traffic of its subsidiary Vinci Airports, competitor of ADP, had jumped by 76.1% in August compared to the corresponding period of 2021, while the traffic of the intercity networks of Vinci Autoroutes had at the same time declined by 2.7%.
European equity markets are expected to be little changed at the opening on Thursday, regaining some stability after losses in recent days in reaction to U.S. inflation figures. At 7:35 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract was up 2.3 points, or 0.04 percent, according to data from broker IG Markets. The DAX contract was up 10 points, or 0.1%, and the FTSE 100 contract was up 28 points, or 0.4%.
Investors will be watching on Thursday for weekly U.S. jobless claims figures, which are expected to have risen to 225,000 last week from 222,000 the week before. Data on retail sales in August, which will provide an indication of the impact of inflation on household spending, and the index of industrial production for the same month are also expected in the United States. On Wednesday night, Wall Street ended higher after a volatile session. After a brief spell in the red at the end of the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finally gained 0.1% to 31,135 points. The broader S&P 500 index gained 0.3% to 3,946 points. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7% to 11,719.68 points.
The major U.S. indexes had suffered Tuesday their biggest one-session decline since June 2020 after the announcement of a higher than expected increase in consumer prices in August. The major U.S. indices suffered their biggest one-session decline since June 2020 after the announcement of a stronger-than-expected increase in consumer prices in August, which called into question the scenario of a moderation in the pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In Asia, the Chinese central bank kept its main policy rate unchanged on Thursday. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) left the rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) at 2.75 percent, while injecting 400 billion yuan (58.3 billion euros) of liquidity through this financial instrument.
In reaction, the Shanghai Composite index lost 1% on Thursday. The main indices of the Tokyo and Hong Kong stock exchanges recovered slightly after their heavy losses on Wednesday. The Nikkei index gained 0.2% and the Hang Seng gained 0.4%.
U.S. Treasury yields rose again Thursday morning as investors braced for the risk that the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy could push the U.S. into recession. The yield on the two-year bond is still at the highest level since November 2007. The market is speculating about a possible 100 basis point hike in Fed rates next week, although a 75 basis point increase still seems more likely. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 100 basis point hike is estimated at 30% Thursday morning, compared to 70% for a 75 basis point hike.
The dollar is advancing Thursday morning, especially against the euro, after fluctuating sharply in recent days. After higher than expected inflation figures in August across the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve should clearly indicate at theBank of America economists expect the Fed to make it clear at next week's meeting that monetary policy will remain tight for an extended period. They expect a 75 basis point increase in the federal funds rate, although inflation data on Tuesday led to bets of a 100 basis point hike. BofA also says the likelihood of a soft landing for the U.S. economy is diminishing and that the Fed's monetary policy committee is likely to lower its growth forecast.
Oil futures were little changed Thursday morning, after gaining ground Wednesday on speculation that the Biden administration would consider replenishing its strategic black gold reserves at $80 a barrel. At 7:25 a.m., the November North Sea Brent contract was down 19 cents at $93.91 a barrel, while October WTI was down 9 cents at $88.39 a barrel.
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