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OF Morning Report

27/10/2022
Categories: General Information

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Before the ECB's announcements, European stock exchanges are expected to fall slightly. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,605.31 points (+0.55%), the CAC 40 at 6,276.31 points (+0.41%), the DAX 40 at 13,195.81 points (+1.09%), the FTSE 100 at 7,056.07 points (+0.61%), the SMI at 10,817.21 points (+0.41%), the AEX at 665.63 points (-0.09%), the BEL 20 at 3,533.56 points (-0.19%), the IBEX 35 at 7,870.60 points (+0.97%), the DJIA at 31,839.11 points (+0.01%), the Nasdaq at 10,970.99 points (-2.04%), the S&P 500 at 3,830.60 points (-0.74%) and the Nikkei 225 at 27,376.69 points (-0.20%).

As for exchange rates, the change from the close mentions that in New York, EUR/USD is at 1.0069 (-0.17%), EUR/JPY at 147.03 (-0.41%), and USD/JPY at 146.04 (-0.24%).

The quarterly corporate publishing season is in full swing, with results from TotalEnergies, STMicroelectronics, Saint-Gobain, TF1, Ubisoft, Bic and Vallourec in particular. Danone, Valeo, Capgemini, Schneider Electric, Casino, EDF, Groupe ADP, Rexel, Korian, Eramet, Ipsen, Coface, GTT, Ipsos and Solutions 30 who are presenting their sales figures this Thursday in France for the period July to September.

On the occasion of the publication of their quarterly performances last night, Carrefour, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield and Alten raised their objectives for the whole of 2022, while Accor announced that it expects gross operating income (EBITDA) at the top of its target range in 2022, after having completed a business record in the third quarter.

For their part, Nexity, Bureau Veritas and Soitec confirmed their annual forecasts when announcing their quarterly sales figures. Eiffage also announced the acquisition of an additional 13.71% stake in Getlink, which will make the construction group the largest shareholder in the Channel Tunnel operator. This operation, designed to further diversify Eiffage in concessions, will place the group at the head of a stake of 18.79% in total.

As investors wait for the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting to finish and analyze a new round of corporate results, European equity markets are expected to open slightly lower today.

The FTSE 100 was down 20 points, or 0.3%, and the one on the DAX 40 was down 29 points, or 0.2%. According to data from the IG Markets broker, the CAC 40 futures contract lost 9 points, or 0.1%, at 7:35am.

In order to fight inflation close to 10% in the eurozone, the ECB should announce a further 75 point increase in its key interest rates today. Credit Suisse's strategic plan and third-quarter results are attracting the attention of the markets on the corporate side. The results of the energy groups TotalEnergies and Shell, the consumer goods manufacturer Unilever, the brewer AB InBev and the airline Lufthansa are among the other major publications of the day in Europe.

Yesterday, Wall Street ended lower, weighed down by technology stocks after disappointing quarterly releases from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Texas Instruments. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) finished almost unchanged at 31,839.64 points, resilient thanks to Visa's results. For its part, the Nasdaq Composite, rich in technology stocks, fell by 2% to 10,970.99 points. The main indices present a mixed picture today in Asia. The Hang Seng gained 1.5% in Hong Kong, while the Nikkei index lost 0.2% late in trading in Tokyo. The Shanghai Composite fell by 0.5%.

While several economic indicators recently released in the United States have supported the hope that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will eventually also temper the magnitude of its rate hikes, US Treasury bond yields gave way yesterday. They accompany a fall in the dollar and a more limited increase in interest rates from the Bank of Canada than expected. Markets estimate that the Fed is 89% likely to raise interest rates by 75 basis points on November 2, to a range between 3.75% and 4%, and that it is 55% likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Investors are betting on a slowdown in rate hikes in the United States. So the dollar is rising against the euro this morning. According to MUFG Bank, foreign exchange traders continue to lower their expectations of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy in the short term.

When it comes to currency risk at Silicon Valley Bank, “various signals suggest that the Fed's rate hikes are starting to pay off,” according to Ivan Asensio, head of the advisory. In the housing sector, retail sales and the profits of large technology companies. For him, Google's advertising revenue is falling, “which signals that businesses are spending less and feeling the effects.” Changes were taking place elsewhere yesterday, such as at the Bank of Canada, which surprised with a rate hike of 50 basis points, which was below expectations, according to Ivan Asensio.

This morning, crude oil futures are gaining ground. Under limited supply conditions, according to Oanda, the price of sweet light crude (WTI) listed on Nymex has a solid level of support around 85 dollars. According to the broker, crude prices could also be supported by the US Department of Energy's crude inventory report, which showed that exports had reached a record high and that gasoline demand had rebounded. The December WTI contract increased 13 cents to $88.04 per barrel, while the North Sea Brent contract at the same time earned 18 cents to $95.87 per barrel.

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