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OF Morning Newsletter

12/12/2022
Categories: General Information

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While waiting for the major central banks, European equity markets are expected to open lower. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,942.62 points (+0.54%), the CAC 40 at 6,677.64 points (+0.46%), the DAX 40 at 14,370.72 points (+0.74%), the FTSE 100 at 7,476.63 points (+0.06%), the SMI at 11,068.30 points (+0.58%), the AEX at 7476.63 points (+0.06%), the SMI at 11,068.30 points (+0.58%), the AEX at 7476.63 points (+0.06%), the SMI at 11,068.30 points (+0.58%) 7 points (+0.60%), the BEL 20 at 3,721.33 points (+0.78%), the IBEX 35 at 8,289.20 points (+0.78%), the DJIA at 33,476.46 points (-0.90%), the Nasdaq at 11,004.62 points (-0.70%), the S&P 500 at 3,934.38 points (-0.73%), the Nikkei 225 at 27.70% 842.33 points (-0.21%). As for exchange rates, the change compared to the close mentions that in New York, EUR/USD is at 1.0517 (-0.16%), EUR/JPY at 144.08 (+0.17%) and USD/JPY at 137.02 (+0.32%). Sanofi will get investors' attention today. With a view to buying Horizon Therapeutics, the pharmaceutical company announced on Sunday that it had ended discussions and did not intend to make an offer for the biotechnology company. The French group said in a brief statement that “as the transaction price expectations [for Horizon, editor's note] do not meet Sanofi's criteria for creating value, Sanofi announces that it is no longer in discussions with Horizon and that it does not intend to make an offer on Horizon.” A decision that leaves the field open to its American competitor Amgen, also in the running to buy Horizon.” A decision that leaves the field open to its American competitor Amgen, also in the running to buy Horizon. In the wake of Wall Street's pullback on Friday, European equity markets are expected to open lower on Monday. Investors are waiting for monetary policy decisions from several major central banks this week, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BOE). The FTSE 100 futures contract dropped 21 points, or 0.3%, while the DAX 40 futures contract dropped 70 points, or 0.5%. According to data from the IG Markets broker, the CAC 40 futures contract lost 23 points, or 0.3% around 7:40 a.m. This year, the Federal Reserve's offensive against high inflation dominated global financial markets. The action moves to Europe starting this week. Inflation may prove to be more persistent and more difficult to control in Europe. This change is likely to reverse some of the main market dynamics of 2022, such as the extreme strength of the dollar. The Fed is expected to raise the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points at the end of the monetary policy meetings scheduled for this week, the Bank of England is expected to raise its federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points, and the European Central Bank is expected to raise policy rates by 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points. However, central banks' trajectories could diverge in 2023. According to Refinitiv data, investors expect the Fed to raise rates by just 0.6 percentage points next year, compared with increases of 1.25 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points anticipated for the ECB and the Bank of England respectively. Aside from these decisions, investors are waiting this week for consumer price statistics in the United States on Tuesday. Wall Street ended lower on Friday, in response to news of a sharper than expected rise in U.S. producer prices in November, ahead of a week full of macroeconomic news. While the Dow Jones (DJIA) fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell 0.7% each. The DJIA lost 2.8% over the whole week. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 dropped 4% and 3.4% respectively. The pharmaceutical sector will take center stage this Monday as far as businesses are concerned. Major Asians fell back on Monday. While the Hang Seng Index fell 2.2% in Hong Kong at the end of the session, the Nikkei index closed down 0.2%. At the same time, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.8%. After Friday's announcement of a sharper than expected rise in U.S. producer prices in November, US Treasury bond yields rose. The benchmark 10-year-old stock achieved its best weekly performance in five weeks. Producer price inflation slowed to 7.4% year on year in November from 8.1% the previous month, although higher than expectations. Thus, according to LPL Financial, “the relaxation of producer prices suggests an improvement in the inflationary environment.” For its part, the financial intermediary believes that “the Fed will probably slow the pace of its rate hikes [this week] and should continue like this in 2023. Nonetheless, the rise in producer prices illustrates the need for continued monetary tightening, even if at a slower pace. The path of inflation is becoming clearer and consumer prices will gradually approach the Fed's long-term objective.” At the dawn of a week marked by the meeting of the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee, the dollar rose on Monday against the other major currencies, including the euro. Economists believe that with a rate hike of 50 basis points and sharply revised terminal rate forecasts, the US central bank should adopt a restrictive position. “Our main concern is the effect that such announcements could have on the dollar, which is under pressure due to the current scenario of a Fed 'pivot', despite clear signs that US inflation is not weakening,” ANZ says. For Capital Economics, trading could be volatile this week “as ten major central banks are due to meet, including the Fed and the ECB, and key indicators on inflation and activity will be released.” According to him, even if, as expected, the Fed is content to raise rates by 50 basis points this month, “we think that its president [Jerome] Powell will once again reject the 'pivot' scenario that prevails.” Backed by the threat of the Russian president, oil prices are gaining ground this morning. Vladimir Putin plans to reduce his country's oil production in retaliation for the price cap announced by the G7. The January contract on light sweet crude (WTI) listed on Nymex earned 59 cents at $71.61 per barrel, while the February contract on North Sea Brent was 43 cents at $76.53 per barrel. But numerous factors could prevent crude oil prices from rising too sharply, including fears of a global recession and a fall in oil demand in China. Since raising rates too quickly by the American central bank could lead to an economic recession and weigh on demand for oil, oil market operators will be particularly attentive to the inflation figures in the United States and to the Fed's decision this week.
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