Nigeria's rating is supported by a favorable public debt/GDP ratio, a large economy, a developed and liquid domestic debt market, and significant oil and gas reserves. Indeed, the score is limited by weak governance, security issues, high inflation, structurally very low non-oil revenues, a high dependence on hydrocarbons, and a weak exchange rate framework. As for the stable outlook, they are supported by the basic assumption of moderate progress in reforms under the new administration, including the gradual elimination of oil subsidies and greater exchange rate flexibility, although there is significant uncertainty around the political agenda.

Fitch forecasts GDP growth of 2.8% in 2023 compared with 3.3% in 2022, driven by the service sector and rising oil production, offsetting the weakness of agriculture and a slowdown in 1Q23 of the disorderly process of exchanging banknotes into naira.