Another day marked by rising oil prices. Yesterday, black gold continued to improve its gains and maintain its upward trend, which began nearly three weeks ago under the effect of announcements of promising coronavirus vaccines.
Hopes of a rebound in global demand are growing and prices are following suit, even approaching $50. Yesterday, at midday, Brent for the North Sea for delivery in January stood at $ 48.52 on the London market after having gleaned 1.38% compared to Tuesday's close. As for the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for the same month, it climbed 1.11% to reach $ 45.41 per barrel. Levels that have not been reached since March 6, it should be emphasized, and this, thanks to the positive evolution of vaccines and the first mass vaccination campaigns scheduled for next month.
In recent days, Astra Zeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have announced the effectiveness of their future vaccines against Covid-19, a real lifeline for the demand for black gold.
Prices are also improving thanks to signals from OPEC+ about a likely adjustment of its reduction agreement. The increase in production of 1.9 million barrels per day has been questioned in recent days by influential members of the alliance, and the statements made in this perspective seem to have been taken into account by the market. OPEC+ members will meet early next week and their approach could well be adopted in favor of maintaining the cuts underway since last August, i.e. 7.7 mbd. The increase to 5.8 mbd from January could then be postponed for a period of three to six months, according to observers' forecasts.
Meanwhile, OPEC Secretary-General Mohamed Barkindo has reversed global crude demand, estimating that it will reach nearly 104 mbd by 2025. Speaking at a crescent Oil and Gas Group's Energy Outlook Forum on Monday, held via video conference, Barkindo said that "the outlook for crude oil may seem anemic now, but we expect a gradual normalization of demand growth as the world recovers from the Covid-19 shock".
"Our analysts expect global oil demand to return to relatively robust annual growth and reach nearly 104 million b/d by 2025," he said, based on OPEC's annual report released last October on the global oil outlook. In this context, he stressed that in the longer term, a number of factors will stimulate consumption, such as population and economic growth, especially in developing and emerging economies. "We expect the global economy to double from 2019 to 2045, to $258 trillion, and the population to grow by at least 20 percent, to $9.5 billion," he added > <. On the other hand, OPEC predicts that oil will remain the dominant fuel in the global energy mix for the foreseeable future, accounting for nearly 28% in 2045, followed by gas at around 25%.