Mali, since 2012, continues to live the corollaries of social imbalances: security crisis, humanitarian and identity crises jeopardizing the fundamentals of a country already tested in its sovereign functions. Attacks on security forces and conflicts between communities in the same localities are increasing. This execrable expansion of insecurity coupled with climatic hazards that push many populations to leave their localities of life and activities for others means that today, more than 207,751 internally displaced people are recorded as of 31 December 2019, according to the latest report of the Population Movement Commission (CMP).

From these thorny problems, it becomes clear that Mali was already a country at risk in terms of economic prospects with the challenge of managing three crises (security, identity and humanitarian) that moreover, involve and maintain each other increasing the risk factors of life on the population and having caused serious problems. food safety issues. According to the report of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) of 28 January 2020) whose role is to work to strengthen the UN response to crises and natural disasters), nearly 4.3 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in 2020 with a forecast of 1.1 million people who will be "severely" food insecure in the country during the lean season (June to August 2020). In this situation of sustained insecurity, Mali's economic developments have never been so alarming and are causing uncertainty among investors, mainly and other economic actors. Investment, a macroeconomic variable that boosts and stimulates the creation of wealth, employment and therefore growth, is slowing down more than ever.

It is in this cataclysmic climate that the whole world has been living for almost three months due to the most serious health crisis both enormous and extraordinary of the second decade of the 21st century. Starting from China, globalization, interdependence, the interconnection of economic sectors and economies of countries mean that Covid-19 spares no one from high-income countries, middle or low, everything goes there!

Since 25 March 2020, Mali has been counting its confirmed cases.

As we well know, when economic activity slows down, far from theoretical elucubrations, state intervention is a common sense issue: it is necessary to save jobs, and therefore the lives of families. The government of Mali, already in recession since the economic growth prospects of 4.9 pc in 2020 are revised downwards (the decline is confirmed, but the magnitude is not yet proportionate since the crisis is only at its beginning) has no choice but to intervene. Most heads of state, in this pandemic period, have announced accompanying social measures. The speech of the President of the Republic on April 10 was expected. The whole problem is to know what strategic foundations for the measures announced? Beyond that, are they realistic and sufficient?

We have waited too long. Governance finds its effectiveness in proactivity, in anticipation. Even so, better late than never. We have measures, yes, but for what purposes? Let us recall the most essential, especially, for the "so-called fragile" layers:

          A special fund of 100 billion francs for the most vulnerable families will be set up at the level of the 703 communes of Mali;

          The free distribution of fifty-six thousand tons of cereals and sixteen thousand tons of livestock feed to vulnerable populations affected by COVID 19;

          The reduction for 3 months of the taxable base at the customs cordon of basic necessities, in particular rice and milk;

          The assumption, for the months of April and May 2020, of electricity and water bills for the categories belonging to the so-called social brackets, that is to say the most deprived;

          Exemption from Value Added Tax on electricity and water bills of all consumers, for the months of April, May and June 2020;

To do this, the government has decided on several social measures that will cost the State nearly 500 billion of our francs in low cases.

For companies, we retain:

          The credits of all companies affected by COVID 19 will be restructured and guidance will be given to banks, so that Malian companies can benefit from the concessions granted by the Central Bank of West African States;

          As part of the "One Malian, One Mask" programme, 20 million washable masks will be delivered to Bamako next week by mobilising the competent tailors who can make them.

In addition, the government is committed to:

          review all budget allocations. The review will begin at the top of the state;

pay a special premium to mobilized health personnel as well as to elements of the security and defense forces assigned to the surveillance of the curfew and possible gathering places;
renounce one month's salary for the war effort required against COVID-19;
The President of the Republic waives three months' salary, and the Prime Minister, two months.

These measures show that:

...A desire to revive the economy through fiscal policy:

Indeed, it shows a desire to apply a fiscal policy of recovery, thus increasing budgetary expenditure through the renunciation for the period concerned of revenues relating to certain basic necessities, which will allow prices to fall if sellers play the game and the regulatory policy prices and effectively enforced competition.

But, still, since 2019, the government, persists and signs that the situation of public finances is critical: "the art of taxation consists in plucking the goose to get the most feathers with less screams". As a reminder, we were only half (50 to 55pc) of the revenue levies to be made during 2019 to support expenses in November 2019, when some companies, especially in hydrocarbons, even made advances on the first three quarters of 2020 to allow the State to face some Commitments.

Beyond the donations that remain "donations", in public finance miracles exist little: it is the revenues that finance the expenses. Otherwise, we must widen the deficit, which will increase the debt and raise the problem of sustainability. The deficit itself is not a problem in economics. But it must serve a purpose, in particular, to create wealth for the benefit of the well-being of the population: the problem of efficiency discovers all its raison d'être here.

The President, in his speech insists on the "reorientation of certain budgetary allocations starting from the top of the State" to meet this expense, this poses a real concern in terms of opportunity cost strategy (advantage-cost) in a country where everything is a priority (health, education, security, etc.). It is therefore appropriate that the reorientation strategy be carried out with a view to improving the collective well-being rather than for the benefit of a privileged few of the Republic. For example, the payment of teachers' salary arrears even through strikes could, beyond easing the tension on this social front, have been perceived as a fairer and more equitable measure in favour of populations of all social strata. And never mind, the speech on the rationalization of the state budget has always been held by the same authorities for ages, but taking only governance over the period 2013-2018, spending has undergone an average increase of more than 13pc, from 1433 billion in 2013 to 2330 billion in 2018. Nevertheless, the overall situation in the country is only getting worse.

By overcoming scepticism about the sustainability and effectiveness of these measures, a major difficulty arises as to their sufficiency. This crisis, beyond its cyclical aspect, poses, in the most obvious way, another more thorny problem of a structural nature. Indeed, our health services are in an appalling situation, even in the abyss. The number of nursing staff, in addition to their limited number, is experiencing a problem of lack of qualifications. Limited or non-existent care equipment in some hospitals. This is the time to reflect and design a large-scale investment plan for the health sector, ranging from training, through recruitment, from the construction of hospitals to the availability of equipment. It is in this that the current crisis becomes an opportunity for Mali to redress its governance, to raise its head for the well-being of the populations.

Indeed, the current crisis is an opportunity for our country to create value chains in sectors where we have comparative advantages in order to support economic growth for the benefit of collective well-being. This must involve rethinking our industrial policies through the establishment and execution of a strategic vision at the national level taking into account the potential of each region which will have as a common thread, a diversified industrial sector, supported by primary sector raw materials. But also, education policies must adapt to this changing and uncertain context. Industry has, as a driving force, human capital (set of skills, assets, experiences, knowledge, skills, qualifications that an individual may have). Institutional governance must be of good quality and public policy coordination capacities must be up to the task. The waste of public resources, the privatization of the state apparatus for the benefit of a gang organized among cronies, the irresponsibility of certain agents of the state must stop to give way to "a more virtuous governance".

...What about this notion of a so-called "fragile" layer that should benefit more from these measures?

Mali is a low-middle-income country, $770 per capita per year, or CFAF 463,540 per year per capita (World Bank Statistics). In a situation of high cost of living aggravated by the crisis situation, how many families can live throughout the year with 463,540 FCFA, or 38,628 FCFA per month with a fertility rate of 6 children per woman on average? This, not to rely on income inequality and poverty. The UNDP Human Development Index, which assesses the qualitative development (education, health, etc.) of a country, in 2019, ranked Mali 48th on the African continent and 182nd globally out of a total of 189 countries (the seventh last on the global scale). How, in this situation of widespread vulnerability and income inequality coupled with a pandemic that slows down all economic activity, recognize the most fragile layer? All jobs are threatened, and even the salaries of state civil servants.

Indeed, a long recession resulting in a depression puts any state in economic bankruptcy, and therefore unable to meet its wage commitments. We have experienced this case in some countries such as Chad for less serious crises than the one we were experiencing today when the price of a barrel of oil began its fall two years ago, negatively impacting Chadian export earnings, and therefore its ability to finance wage expenditures. If several layers exist, they are all in this pandemic context, "fragile, even vulnerable". Far from political discourse, economic pragmatism would like a strategic vision of measures capable of accompanying all the vulnerable strata today.

In addition, remember that Mali, like the majority of African countries, imports more than 90% of its medicine. In a pandemic emergency situation such as COVID 19, where all countries, especially drug exporters, first promote the satisfaction of domestic demand, this increases the health risk, and therefore mortality in the importing country. More than ever, a development plan for the pharmaceutical industry must be designed and implemented to ensure that the nation has a certain sovereignty from this point of view.

Very importantly, the crisis we were experiencing has amply demonstrated the inadequacies of the globalization of industrial economies. Exports and imports from all major economies have shown distress signals. A deteriorating trade balance leads illico presto to a decline in GDP and by causal effect economic growth. It is this decline in growth that we are witnessing in every country in the world. The time has come for countries like Mali to be less dependent on public spending, export earnings and therefore the trade balance in order to begin building an industrial sector focused on meeting domestic demand, which must be stimulated by stable jobs and establishment of effective safety nets.

...COVID-19: a crisis that is testing the informal sector:

The great particularity of this health crisis is that it imposes a criterion of social distancing, ranging from one meter to the strictest confinement. However, economic activity in our country as everywhere else is, in essence, a mobile, dynamic activity that involves permanent interaction between economic agents. This interaction multiplies when it comes to companies operating in the informal sector. From this point of view, the informal sector, one of the lungs of the Malian economy, is becoming one of the aggravating factors of the health crisis. The informal sector refers to those enterprises where there is no lack of business register, the existence of a statute, legal text, registration and share capital (OHADA). In Mali, it represents nearly 70% of economic activity where the illiteracy rate exceeds 65% (UNESCO).

Ahead of regulated agriculture, the informal sector is the leading sector providing employment throughout the national territory with more than 60pc of gross domestic product, 99pc of Malian companies operating there and 95pc of jobs created (API Mali report, June 2017). In this economic precariousness characterized by the informal, the vast majority of economic agents in Mali live from day to day. This is why the restrictive measures presented as one of the most effective solutions to slow down the chain of transmission without accompanying measures understood and shared by economic agents, are a "pipe dream in Mali": between the risk of catching the COVID-19 disease and survival, the choice is quickly made. Hence the need for state intervention. As if to paraphrase Ibrahim Hassan Mayaki, the executive secretary of NEPAD, "Poverty cannot be confined." However, beyond the closure of borders with other countries, the President of the Republic does not exclude this measure which envisages in his speech to the Nation of April 10, 2020 the closure of Bamako at first where nearly 3 million Malians live. Beyond the fact that the lockdown is causing uncertainty about consumption and production forecasts, what can be the consequences for the domestic economy?

...From border closures to stock-outs?

The tertiary sector, mainly dominated by trade, administrative activity and other services is the most dynamic and already contributed 37.55% of GDP in 2019 (the WAMU-Securities Agency), with a strong trade deficit. However, it is common knowledge that the Malian economy remains structurally very little industrialized with a manufacturing sector that is struggling to develop. This partly explains the country's strong need for imports and a current account deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2019. To this must be added a structurally low mobilization of tax revenues (14.3% of GDP), below the WAEMU standard of 20%.

The brutality with which the virus has been spreading for more than a month has pushed Mali, like its neighboring states, to close their borders in order to reduce movement. This closure, in the long term, will cause a decrease in the mobility of people, but also and above all, of goods, services and capital. Mali, living largely on the import of goods and services, therefore dependent on the rest of the world, will see its food stock reduced in the long term. "The scarcity of a good, or a service making its value", this decrease will present an opportunity to increase prices for sellers. The resulting inflation will result in a decline in the purchasing power of households, and therefore in domestic consumption. Another cause of stock-out can be discovered in the desire of households to protect themselves against a sudden evolution of the virus by making purchases allowing them to overstock at home. In both cases, public procurement policies should be implemented to avoid stock-outs, a source of loss of purchasing power. This does not seem to have been done before the announcement of these restrictive measures. So the big question remains how the authorities intend to manage a potential stock-out?

We needed a speech, and the speech took place. Beyond the measures announced to get out of the crisis, we need a strategic vision that will not only get the country out of this rut, but able to face a possible crisis of the same magnitude, there is no guarantee that we will not see such a phenomenon in 10 years. This requires the structural transformation of the economy, the rationalization of exorbitant public spending, the reorientation of the national productive system on domestic demand, the stimulation of stable and sustainable jobs with effective safety nets, the coordination of public policies ensuring continuity of measures and a sense of responsibility and patriotism in the management of affairs of the nation. In a word, a nation exists to last, the plan in question must build Mali for the long term!

More than managing the Emergency permanently with "measuring", speeches must now be used to regain control of our lives.