At its annual roundtable and at the request of Ghana, Senegal and Uganda, the African Trade Insurance Agency (ACA) delivered its analysis yesterday: Africa is likely to experience a moderate economic recovery in 2021 and some countries would not return to their growth levels. 2019 before 2022.

Unlike previous economic shocks that have mainly impacted commodity-supplying countries, it was pointed out, this pandemic has particularly affected a wider range of countries, including more diversified economies and those dependent on tourism and aviation. Both Senegal and Uganda were cited as countries likely to be the strongest because they were implementing, even before the pandemic, sound fiscal and monetary policies. Others, already experiencing problems before the pandemic, are expected to experience a worsening of their situation with a debt level reaching 60% of GDP in 2020 against 40% in 2015.

By 2021, six African countries are expected to have gross public debt exceeding 100% of GDP, while overall the debt burden is expected to increase and then stabilise above 60% of GDP by 2021/2022. this should not have a strong impact at the regional level. Khalifa Sarr, advisor to Senegal's Minister of Economy, Planning and International Partnerships, suggested that the international community recognize that not all debts are equal.

The IMF estimates that it will necessarily take $345 billion over the next three years to help countries fully recover, it was said, while the G20 debt service suspension initiative will only provide eligible countries with $6.5 billion until June 2021. the myriad of non-traditional sources of financing, from the Middle East and Asia, further complicates the debt problem," the statement said.

For his part, Samuel Arkhurst, Director of the Treasury and Debt Management Division of Ghana, stressed that not only was Ghana's economy well diversified which helped it, but it was also helped by stable cocoa prices and renewed interest. investors for gold, which helped counter the effects of lower oil prices.

On the health side, the pandemic seems to have had more impact in North and Southern Africa, said Dr. Robert Besseling, founder and CEO of Pangea-Risk. Each region accounts for one third of cumulative infections, with Egypt and Morocco being the most affected countries in North Africa while South Africa alone accounts for a third of infections in Southern Africa. However, daily infection rates show that Africa as a whole, including West and East African countries, is clearly in the throes of a second wave. There are currently 2.2 million infections, 300,000 of which are active.

Recall that the Agency for Trade Insurance in Africa is the only multilateral organization covering political risk and trade credit risk in Africa. The ACA is an African institution, founded in 2001 by African states with the financial and technical support of the World Bank.