On October 17, 2025, S&P Global Ratings placed under surveillance with negative implications: long-term sovereign credit ratings and in the short term “B/B” in the local and foreign currency of Madagascar.

“We think that political uncertainty will hamper the decision-making and the implementation of reforms in the short term, which will weigh on investment, growth and fiscal consolidation, and possibly on debt service,” the rating agency said.

Colonel Michael Randrianirina, the author of the coup, was sworn in as president on Friday, a few days after taking the control of Madagascar following youth-led protests which forced his predecessor, Andry Rajoelina, to leave power. Ce The last was dismissed by parliamentarians after fleeing abroad during the weekend.

S&P has indicated that it may remove the rating of Madagascar from negative surveillance if the transition goes smoothly, whether administrative continuity is ensured and if access to finance official is maintained, while honoring commercial debt obligations.

The agency also downgraded its forecasts for real GDP growth for Madagascar, at an average of 3.0% over 2025-2026, compared to 4.1% previously, and now forecasts an average budget deficit of 5.3% of GDP over the same period, compared to 4.3% in the previous scenario.

“In our opinion, the support of donors is essential for the implementation of reforms and access to finance at lower cost,” S&P added

Between its independence in 1960 and 2020, the GDP per inhabitant of Madagascar has fallen by almost half, according to the World Bank, making the country one of the few nations to have become impoverished during this period