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Togolese economy: How to "stay the course" in the face of political contingencies?

10/03/2020
Source : news.alome.com
Categories: General Information

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How to create a viable synergy between the "good" economic reforms and the political realities on the ground that are not striking? This is the equation that must be solved by the government, which aims to make Togo an emerging country in a few years.

In the latest Doing Business Report of the World Bank, Togo obtained a good score, occupying the 97th place out of 190 economies of countries studied, thanks to reforms relating to business creation, access to credit, transfer of property, connection to electricity and building permit.

With these five reforms of business regulation, says the World Bank, "Togo is among the 10 economies in the world that have made the most progress in terms of ease of doing business, according to the Doing Business 2020 study."

Coralie Gevers, Director of the Côte d'Ivoire, Benin, Togo and Guinea offices, in a statement from the Bank, praised Togo's efforts in this progress and was clear: "Now the objective is to maintain this reform momentum."

Ms. Hawa Cissé Wagué, World Bank Resident Representative in Togo, reassures: "The World Bank Group remains available to support the national reform agenda that is laying the foundation for strong and inclusive growth." There is no shortage of support from the IMF and other financial institutions.

However, in the face of political contingencies, made up of crises and socio-political conflicts due to a crisis of confidence between power and opposition, the country's economy will suffer for a long time.

The proof, following the political events of 2017 to 2018 triggered by the leader of the PNP, Tikpi Salifou Atchadam, supported by the entire opposition, Togolese companies have suffered. A recent study by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Togo (CCIT) is instructive.

According to the study, 82.77% of company executives say that political tensions have had an impact on their activities and 74.34% of business leaders admit to having faced a "precarious financial situation".

The same study also reveals that 71.93% of companies claimed to have experienced a decline in their turnover of the order of 25 to 50% in the second half of 2017 and 72.77% indicate that they have suffered a fall in their results because of political tensions in the country.

In addition, a report by the African Development Bank (AfDB) on Togo's outlook, noted that the Togolese economy, after the slowdown due to the "negative impact" of the socio-political crisis of 2017 and 2018, as well as the "severe fiscal adjustment" agreed with the IMF, is expected to grow by 5% in 2019.

In April 2018, it is recalled, the IMF had noted a slowdown in the economy that had an impact on the growth rate which was estimated at 4.4% in 2017 against 5.1% in 2016. This coming and going of the growth rate jeopardizes a real development of the economy dependent on the mood of national politics.

In the run-up to the presidential election where discordant voices about its transparency and credibility echo among economic operators, activities are slowing down. Findings on the ground indicate that banks are reluctant or reserve to finance savings. Investors have put their enthusiasm at half-mast and this is the status quo.

In addition, some economic decisions contribute to the status quo: banks do not lend enough because the economy is not strong; the business climate, in some sectors is not livable, corruption is becoming a mode of governance in very juicy areas of the economy and young project leaders are struggling to find innovative financing despite the efforts of the State to support them.

It is necessary, many economists whispered, to manage a marriage of reason and interest between politics and economics, by relying heavily on consensus in terms of governance.

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