The Bank Global expects a gradual improvement in economic growth in the North Africa and Middle East (MENA) region, which should reach 3.6% in 2026 before accelerating to 3.9% in 2027. These forecasts are included in the latest Economic Outlook report worldwide, even if they have been revised down slightly compared to to the estimates published last June.

According to the Bretton Woods institution, this adjustment is mainly explained by a sharper than expected increase in oil production in major countries exporters in 2025, which would translate into a more moderate expansion in 2026-2027. Despite this context, regional dynamics should benefit from recovery in exports, with a return of a positive contribution from net exports from 2026, as well as a more sustained increase private investments.

The Bank Moreover, the global economy underlines that economic activity has already strengthened. in the region, driven by the increase in oil production in exporting countries and by the dynamism of the private sector in countries importers of hydrocarbons. This trend has contributed to a consolidation of growth in these economies, supported by an overall improvement in the economic environment.

For the countries of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), growth is expected to accelerate for reach 4.4% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027, thanks to the rise of non-hydrocarbon activities, combined with the increase in oil production and gas.

On the other hand, the World Bank expects more moderate growth, around 2% per year in average over 2026-2027, for oil-exporting countries that are not members of the CCG. This slowdown would be linked to less dynamic economic activity, in a context of tightening trade restrictions and reducing fiscal support in some countries.

On the side of the countries oil importers, growth is expected to increase slightly for averaging 4% per year over the period 2026-2027, with however marked disparities between national economies.