In the race for "official" cryptocurrencies, the European Central Bank is lagging behind the People's Bank of China, which is already testing its digital yuan, which could be made official in a year. The bet against the dollar is not as widespread as expected, which should not prevent the Turkish lira from recovering against the greenback, according to experts from Societe Generale.

• Two-speed digital currency projects

The digital euro could see the light of day within 5 years, said the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, this week. An ECB survey shows that the main asset for potential users would be confidentiality, far ahead of security (17%) or the pan-European nature of the currency (10%). The study elicited a record number of responses for this type of questionnaire, the ECB is pleased, even though the number of respondents put forward, 8 221 "citizens, businesses and professional associations", seems ridiculously low at Community level. The Governing Council of the ECB is due to decide in a few weeks whether the project is launched. The central bank thinks it is relevant that Europe is equipping itself with this type of tool, to counter the emergence of private initiatives such as Facebook's Libra or the cryptocurrencies of its counterparts, like the PBOC's digital yuan, which is being tested for a launch that could take place in a year... and not in five!

• Everyone is playing the dollar down, really?

We are still talking about the inevitable dollar this week, which has reversed the trend against the euro, taking advantage of the tightening of containment measures on the old continent and the political rififi underway in Italy. As our colleague Patrick Réjaunier, 40 years of markets, would say, "when everyone is bearish on the dollar, it's going to go up". The greenback rose from 1.23 to 1.215 against the single currency. But are bets still as unfavorable to the dollar? Not really, according to the latest investor survey released yesterday by Morgan Stanley. "The weakness of the dollar is a very consensual macroeconomic view at the moment, but we have only seen limited evidence of this in our survey,"  says the US bank, which notes that 43% of investors expect the EURUSD pair to end the year largely unchanged. between 1.20 and 1.25. Only a third of the professionals surveyed expect the 1.25 mark to be crossed by the end of the year. But a quarter also sees a EURUSD at less than 1.20, so...

Where will the dollar be at the end of the year, Morgan Stanley asks its investor clients?

• When Turkey awakens

In the latest version of its trading ideas on rates and currencies, Societe Generale recommends that its clients short the USDTRY pair. "Under the leadership of the new CBRT governor, Naci Ağbal, and the new finance minister, Lütfi Elvan, Turkey seems to be returning to more orthodox policies," said the bank, which believes the Turkish lira will recover. However, three indicators need to be monitored. First, the evolution of "dollarization", to verify that the Turks regain confidence in their currency. Secondly, the ability of the monetary authorities to monitor the commitments that have been made recently. Finally, the absence of international sanctions from Europe or the United States. The USDTRY is currently trading at 7.39545. The SG is also bearish on the EURTRY.

Cross-tabulation of major currency pairs