European stock markets are expected to decline the day after the first round of the presidential election

Eurostoxx 50 points at 3,858.37 points +1.48%, cac 40 at 6,548.22 points +1.34%, DAX 40 at 14,283.67 points +1.46%, FTSE 100 at 7,669.56 points +1.56%, SMI at 12,507.69 points +1.09%, AEX at 724.75 points +1.15%, BEL 20 at 4,221.39 points +1.40%, the IBEX 35 at 8,606.40 points +1.64%, the DJIA at 34,721.12 points +0.40%, the Nasdaq at 13,711.00 points -1.34%, the S&P 500 at 4,488.28 points -0.27% and the Nikkei 225 at 26,761.97 points -0.83% (price at 7:25 am)

EUR/USD trade at 1.0885   +0.08%, EUR/JPY at 135.93 +0.55% and USD/JPY at 124.88   +0.46%

Investors will react monday to the results of the first round of the presidential election. With 28% to 29% of the votes cast, the outgoing president, Emmanuel Macron, came out ahead of the candidate of  the National Rally, Marine Le Pen, who achieved a score of 22 to 24%, and the candidate of the France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, credited with about 21% of the vote.

   The polls conducted for  the second round, which will take place on April 24, give Emmanuel Macron the winner of a short head of the duel that will oppose him to Marine Le Pen.

Guillaume Faury, Executive Chairman of Airbus, has confirmed the aircraft manufacturer's financial targets for 2022 despite the impact of the war in Ukraine. Airbus still expects for this year an operating profit, or Ebit, of 5.5 billion euros and the delivery of 720 aircraft. The executive added that the production rate of the A320, the flagship model of the aircraft manufacturer, would be increased to 65 aircraft per month in the summer of 2023, against 45 copies currently. Airbus also announced friday evening that it had received 104 new aircraft orders and delivered 63 aircraft to 38 customers in March.

TF1 and M6 have entered into agreements with the Altice Media group to transfer the digital terrestrial television channels TFX and 6ter to it in the event of the completion of their merger project. The two transactions remain subject to the agreement of the Autorité de la Concurrence and the Autorité de régulation de la communication audiovisuelle et numérique (Arcom), as well as to the completion of the proposed merger between TF1 and M6.

ACTIONS

   European equity markets are expected to open lower on Monday, at the dawn of a week marked by the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting, with the first results of european companies for the first quarter and inflation figures in the United States.

   Around 7:30 am, the futures contract on the CAC 40 lost 36 points, or 0.5%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The DAX 40 contract was down 138 points, or 1%, and the FTSE 100 contract was down 35 points, or 0.5%. European indices ended sharply higher on Friday, supported by the decline in the euro.

   The war in Ukraine and international sanctions against Russia also continue to worry markets, as European Union foreign ministers meet on Monday to discuss a new a package of measures targeting Moscow. The 27 remain divided, however, over an embargo on Russian oil and gas, with some countries, including Germany and Italy, being highly dependent on Russian hydrocarbons.

   The World Bank said over the weekend that it anticipated a 45.1%  drop in Ukrainian gross domestic product (GDP) this year, although the extent of the contraction could ultimately depend on the  duration of the war.

   In the United States, Wall Street ended in scattered order on Friday, after a sharp rise in bond yields due to expectations of tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Dow Jones index gained 0.4% to 34,721.52 points, but the S&P 500 lost 0.3% to 4,488.38 points. The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% to 13,711 points.

   In Asia, the main stock exchanges are down Monday at the end of the session. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index lost 0.7%. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Hang Seng Index gave up 2.7% and the Shanghai Composite fell 2%.

   Consumer prices in China rose at their fastest pace in three months in March, due to supply issues related to the lockdown measures adopted to combat Covid-19 and rising consumer prices. #39;energy, according to official data released Monday.

   Inflation accelerated to 1.5% year-on-year, after 0.9% in February. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected consumer prices to rise 1.2 percent in March.

OBLIGATIONS

   U.S. Treasury yields hit new three-year highs on Friday and the two-year yield recorded its biggest five-week increase in more than a decade, while U.S. Treasury yields hit new three-year highs on Friday and the two-year yield  recorded its biggest five-week gain in more than a decade, while Investors continue to assess the likely path of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy.

   Yields continue to rise on Monday, with the yield on the ten-year Treasury bill reaching 2.773%, up from 2.659% on Friday night. The two-year stock rate  stood at 2.582%, up from 2.466% on Friday.

   Last week, yields on long-maturity Treasury bonds rose more than those on short-maturity securities, ending a brief inversion of the curve. A persistent inversion of this part of the yield curve is seen as a harbinger of a recession.

CHANGES

   The euro is rising Monday morning against the dollar.

   The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to change its monetary policy or forward guidance on Thursday, Capital Economics economist Jonathan Goltermann said. However, ECB members are concerned about inflation and Jonathan Goltermann believes they will end asset purchases and raise interest rates in July. These decisions will provide only limited support for the euro, the economist believes.

   The ECB is expected to start raising rates in the third quarter and the deposit rate is expected to move into positive territory in early 2023, said Ulrich Leuchtmann of Commerzbank.

   However, the ECB could interrupt its rate hike cycle in the course of 2023 due to a slowdown in inflation, while the Federal Reserve could raise rates more than expected, which could could interrupt its rate hike in the course of 2023 due to a slowdown in inflation, while the Federal Reserve could raise rates more than expected, which could could interrupt its rate hike cycle in the course of 2023 due to a slowdown in inflation, while the Federal Reserve could raise rates more than expected, which could weaken the euro against the dollar, he adds. Commerzbank expects the euro to reach $1.15 in March 2023, up from $1.0884 on Monday morning, before falling back to $1.12 in December 2023.

PETROLE

   Oil prices  are losing  ground on Monday morning, while the confinement of part of the population in China for health reasons may weigh on demand.

   According to Edward Moya, market analyst at Oanda, crude oil prices  are likely to lose an additional 3% to 5% until lockdowns related to the Covid-19 pandemic in China are lifted.

   The price of a barrel of light soft crude (WTI) listed on the Nymex could find support around $95, but the strength of the dollar could weaken commodity prices, which would then suffer further declines, Oanda adds.

   At 7:20 a.m., the June Brent contract lost $2.22, or 2.2%, to $100.56 a barrel, while the May contract on Nymex-listed light crude (WTI) lost $2.21, or 2.3%, to $96.05 a barrel.