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OF Bulletin du matin

10/06/2021
Categories: General Information

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European equities open very slightly higher before the ECB and inflation in the US. This Thursday morning, the Eurostoxx 50 and the CAC 40 were respectively up  to 4,096.85 points and 6,563.45 points. The DAX 30 is expecting 15,581.14 points down 0.38% and the FTSE 100 is also down 0.20% to 7,081.01 points. the SMI expects an increase of 1.13% to 11,788.10 points, the AEX  722.71 points with an increase of 0.46%, the BEL 20 to 4,149.93 points up 1.03%, the IBEX 35 to 9,156.10 points up 0.03%, the DJIA  to 34,447.14 points with a decline of 0.44%, the Nasdaq to 13,911.75 points down 0.09%, the S&P 500 at 4,219.55 points down 0.18% and the Nikkei 225 posted 28,955.02 points, up 0.33%.

 

As far as the exchange rate is concerned, the variation from the close in New York shows a decline in all currency pairs. EUR/USD is down 0.11%, EUR/JPY is down 0.11%, EUR/JPY is down 0.19% and USD/JPY is down 0.56% and down 0.08%.

 

On the business side, investors will follow Thursday in France the figures of payroll employment in the first quarter and industrial production in April. Soitec on Wednesday evening raised its revenue target for the financial year ending at the end of March 2022, after seeing its growth slowed down in 2020-2021 by the health crisis. The CEOs of TF1 and M6, who are negotiating a merger, will be heard by the Committee on Cultural Affairs and Education and the Economic Affairs Committee of the Senate. The publisher and distributor of music Believe announced on Wednesday that it had set the subscription price of its new shares was set at the bottom of the indicative range of 19.50 to 22.50 euros initially targeted, at 19.50 euros.

While alstom won a contract worth nearly a billion euros as part of the Tren Maya intercity train project in Mexico. This project, worth a total of €1.3 billion, was entrusted to a consortium led by Alstom and including The Canadian Bombardier. Edenred has placed its first convertible bond related to sustainable development for an amount of approximately €400 million.

 

While investors await the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision and the release of U.S. inflation figures, European equity markets are expected to open slightly higher on Thursday. At 7:40 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract gained 1.7 points, or 0.03%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The contract on the DAX 30 took 5 points, or 0.03% also, while the contract on the FTSE 100 advanced by 16 points, or 0.2%. It is unlikely that the ECB will decide on Thursday to slow down the pace of asset purchases under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), reduce the overall envelope of this programme or end it before the scheduled end in March 2022.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index will be released at 2:30 p.m. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect inflation of 0.5 percent month-on-month and 4.7 percent year-on-year in May, after 0.8 percent and 4.2 percent in April. At the same time, investors will follow weekly applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, expected to fall to 370,000. Ahead of these events, Wall Street ended lower on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) fell 0.4% to 34,447 points. The broader S&P 500 index gave up 0.2% to 4,219.59 points after hitting its all-time high in session. The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1% to 13,911.75 points, ending four sessions of gains. Asia's main markets are gaining ground on Thursday. At the end of the session, the Nikkei index was up 0.3% in Tokyo, as was the Hang Seng of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.8%.

  

On the bond side, the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 1.5% on Thursday morning, its lowest level in more than three months, dragged down by mixed economic indicators and strong investor demand. At 7:40 a.m., this rate fell to 1.478%, against 1.490% on Wednesday night. The decline in Treasury bond yields in a context of a sharp acceleration in inflation that is likely to last several months is leading to a decline in inflation expectations. The five-year breakeven inflation peaked on May 17 at 2.72% and stood at 2.42% on Tuesday. The ten-year breakeven inflation also peaked on May 17, at 2.54 percent, before falling to 2.36 percent on Tuesday. Fed officials stressed that data on inflation expectations was crucial for them in the current context of price pressures.

 

On the foreign exchange market, the euro fell Thursday morning against the dollar, in a climate of caution ahead of the ECB's announcements, inflation figures and those of unemployment registrations in the United States. Since Wednesday's announcement of a 9 percent rise in producer prices in China last month, market participants have been on high alert and looking to determine whether such a level of inflation could be exported to the United States, IG said. Higher-than-expected inflation and lower-than-expected jobless registrations could lead to some market volatility by increasing the risk that the Federal Reserve will engage in a debate on a gradual reduction in its asset purchases at its meeting on the 15th and 16th June, warns the broker.

  

Oil contracts meanwhile, are down on Thursday, after the publication of data indicating that demand in the United States remains disappointing, due in particular to unfavorable weather for the extended Memorial Day weekend, at the end of May, in a good part of the country, says the broker OANDA. Higher-than-expected inventories of gasoline and distillates announced by the Department of Energy in its weekly report are also weighing on prices. As refinery activity continues to rise, "U.S. crude inventories can only decrease," Matt Smith, director of commodities research at ClipperData, said in an emailed comment. But "a decline in implicit demand for gasoline and distillates has led to a sharp increase in inventories of these two petroleum products, which offsets the positive impact" of the decline in crude reserves.    At 7:25 a.m., the August contract for North Sea Brent fell 52 cents to $71.70 a barrel, while the July contract for Nymex-listed light sweet crude (WTI) lost 45 cents to $69.46 a barrel. Phil Flynn, an analyst at The Price Futures Group, believes demand data was "skewed" by colonial pipeline problems last month.

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