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OF Bulletin du matin

09/08/2021
Categories: General Information

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European equity markets expected to decline slightly at the opening. The Eurostoxx 50 opened at 4,174.54 points up 0.32%, the CAC 40 at 6,816.96 points (+0.53%), the DAX 30 at 15,761.45 points (+0.11%), the FTSE 100 at 7,122.95 points (+0.04%), the SMI at 12,176.30 points (-0.19%), the AEX  at  767.82 points (-0.05%), the BEL 20 at 4,302.82 points (+0.22%), the IBEX 35 at 8,879.00 points (+0.48%), the DJIA  at 35,208.51 points (+0.41%), the Nasdaq  at 14,835.76 points (-0.40%), the S&P 500 at 4,436.52 points (+0.17%) and the Nikkei 225 at 27,820.04 points (+0.33%).

As for the exchange rate, the change from the close in New York indicates that EUR/USD opens at 1.1759 down 0.03%, EUR/JPY at 129.62 (-0.01%) and USD/JPY at 110.23 down 0.01%.

No macroeconomic indicators are due to be released in France on Monday. The corporate agenda is also empty.

European equity markets are expected to open lower on Monday, penalized by the severe decline in oil and metal prices, as investors question the policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after the publication on Friday of encouraging employment figures in the United States. At 7:15 a.m., the CAC 40 futures contract was down 9.5 points, or 0.1%, according to data from broker IG Markets. The DAX 30 contract was down 24.5 points, or 0.2%, and the FTSE 100 contract was down 17.8 points, or 0.3%. US President Joe Biden's $1.2 trillion infrastructure investment plan on Sunday cleared a series of hurdles in the Senate and is expected to be easily passed by the upper house of the US Congress in the coming days. Eighteen Republican senators joined the Democrats in the various procedural votes.

The bill could have a more difficult run in the House of Representatives. Lower House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she would only put the bill up for debate if the Senate also passes another $3.5 trillion climate and anti-poverty bill. The New York Stock Exchange ended broadly higher on Friday, allowing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices to set new all-time highs, after good data on job creation in the United States in July. The Nasdaq Composite, rich in technology stocks, fell 0.4%, held back by the rise in bond yields. All three indices gained ground again for the week as a whole. In Asia, most markets rallied after opening in the red. China's trade balance figures, released over the weekend, were lower than expected, as the threat of the rapidly spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus persists. At the end of the session, the Hang Seng index was up 0.9% in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite was also up 0.9%. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed on Monday for a public holiday in Japan. Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for third-quarter growth in China down 3.5 percentage points to 2.3 percent as the spread of the variant prompted Chinese authorities to tighten restrictions on travel and leisure.

The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond closed higher at 1.303% on Friday, supported by strong U.S. employment figures and progress in Covid-19 vaccination.  the yield is unlikely to reach its February highs, said Eric Souza, portfolio manager at SVB, as inflation concerns are expected to ease over time. According to Deutsche Bank, long-term Treasury bonds remain expensive despite the decline in prices on Friday. Comparing the market value with its own model, the bank finds that the gap is at its highest level since 2008. The benchmark yield "remains low taking into account fluctuations in other market variables".

The euro is almost stable Monday morning against the dollar and the yen. The greenback is little changed against the Japanese currency. The dollar retained the ground gained on Friday after the announcement of good employment figures in the United States. CBA warns, however, that U.S. consumer price data for July, expected on Wednesday, could be a test for the greenback's strength if they point to a dampening in inflation.

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday morning, accentuating Friday's decline, as concerns grow about the increase in new Covid-19 cases in China, which could weigh on the demand outlook, AmBank Research said. The resurgence of the outbreak in China has overshadowed signs of strong demand elsewhere, the bank adds, noting that road traffic in the United States appears to have returned to 2019 levels, while gasoline deliveries in Spain have also risen above their pre-pandemic levels. At 7:15 a.m., the October contract for North Sea Brent was down $1.30 to $69.40 a barrel. The September contract for light sweet crude (WTI) listed on the Nymex was down $1.34 to $66.94 a barrel.

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