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CURRENCIES: THE DOLLAR SUPPORTED BY POSITIVE RATE DIFFERENTIAL

17/09/2020
Source : cerclefinance.com
Categories: Economy/Forex Index/Markets

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 Ultra-calm post-FED day on FOREX, with rare spreads above 0.2%: the Pound falls by just 0.2% to 1.2940/$ while the BoE (Bank of England) evokes negative rates for the first time since the beginning of the Covid crisis, to which is added a Brexit that will not be a party of pleasure with the EU (and the United States is also threatening in case of non-respect of Boris Johnson's commitments on Ireland).


The Dollar (-0.1% against the Euro at 1.1830) was not penalized by the decline of Wall Street (-2% in 48 hours for the S&P 500) or rather disappointing US figures published at 14:30.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced that it had counted 860,000 new registered for unemployment benefits last week, a number down from the previous week (893,000, revised number from the first estimate of 884,000).

The improvement thus reached -33,000 but analysts expected a more pronounced decline, to 850,000 registrations.

The Commerce Department reported a -5.1% drop in housing starts (CVS) in August in the United States, to 1,416,000 annualized, where the consensus expected 1.45 million.

The number of building permits, which is supposed to prefigure future housing starts, fell slightly by 0.9% to 1,470,000, a level also lower than the average estimate of economists, which was 1.53 million.

The Dollar benefits from the decline in the yield on European sovereign debt (long rates have been steadily easing since September 1 in Europe) while the remuneration of US T-Bonds has remained relatively stable in the meantime.

Our OAT still erase 1.8Pt base at -0.24% -16Pts in 3 weeks, Bunds show -0.49% (-10Pts on September) while T-Bonds went from 0.725% to 0.685%.

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