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Find all the economic and financial information on our Orishas Direct application to download on Play StoreThe Dollar fell against all currencies, by -0.3% on average, it rose only against the Canadian Dollar (+0.3%).
However, the US figures of the day were solid and even beyond expectations: they do not explain the decline of the $ of -0.35% towards 1.1850/E, nor the slide of -0.4% against the Yen towards 106.45.
More generally, the Euro gained 0.5% against the $ this week and +4% in 4 weeks, about half of the +9.5% increase observed since mid-May.
Currency traders continue to talk in every interview about the Fed's promise of low rates at least until 2024, and if Trump were re-elected, he would further reduce taxes on businesses, which would sharply widen deficits and accelerate $(printing money) emissions.
Today's figures came out beyond expectations even if retail sales in the United States increased by only +1.2% according to the Department of Commerce, a score quite far from the 2.3% expected... but Wall Street can reassure itself with non-car sales climbing +1.9% (against +1.2% estimated).
Industrial production in the United States increased by 3% in July according to the Federal Reserve (in line with the average estimate of economists) after an increase of 5.7% in June (revised figure from an initial estimate of 5.4%)... but over 12 months, production fell by -8.2%, we are still far from the return to normal and the recovery in 'V' which Larry Kudlow reaffirmed Thursday night that "it is still the most likely scenario".
For its part, the capacity utilization rate in US industry rose from 2.1% to 70.6% last month, a rate 0.1 point higher than the consensus.
Michigan's confidence index rose slightly, from 72.5 to 72.8... but it's better than the 72 anticipated, so positive for the markets.
U.S. business inventories fell -1.1% in June (after a -2.3% decline in May) according to data presented Friday by the Commerce Department.
Surprise on the productivity side with a jump of +7.3% (against +4.4% estimated)... and unit costs exploded by +12.2% (against +6.6% anticipated).
All these figures are too far from expectations to be credible and therefore the markets do not take them into account.
'Stats' were also published in Europe this morning: the rise in the consumer price index (CPI) in France accelerated to +0.4% over one month, after +0.1% in June, according to INSEE.
Seasonally adjusted, prices even rose by 0.7% in July, after +0.1% the previous month.
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