After the tremor recorded in April and May, the foreign exchange market has since regained serenity. The falls in trade activity and trade due to the health measures taken by governments to stop the spread of the coronavirus had increased currency volatility .

OCP exports play an important role in improving the exchange rate position of banks. It is also supported by lower imports from oil tankers. On the other hand, the flow of the MRE and the receipts of tourism have fallen sharply.

In the space of a month between March and April, the dirham had lost 3.5% against the quotation basket. "At the beginning of the lockdown, companies rushed to cover their position, which also explains the behavior of the dirham.

Today, operators are rather serene, "says a market professional. Since the beginning of June, the currency has appreciated by 2% against the euro/dollar, reflecting in particular a fairly comfortable exchange rate position of the banks. It is ecedentary of 6.5 billion DH. "The Covid-19 shock was rather well managed by the trading rooms since they did not need to resort to Bank Al-Maghrib", notes Olivier Bru, Head of Capital Market BMCI.

"One of the great successes of the reform of the exchange rate regime has been the development of the interbank market," he said. The last currency auction was in March 2018. The reconstruction of the banks' exchange rate position is largely due to the resumption of trade.

"The volumes we currently process are still down about 10% compared to 2019, in line with the evolution of the trade balance. The trade deficit has improved, due to the sharp decline in import flows," says Olivier Bru.

OCP exports play an important role in improving the exchange rate position of banks. It is also supported by lower imports from oil tankers. On the other hand, the flu of the MRE (the flu banknotes represent around 40 billion DH per year) have decreased significantly due to travel restrictions and the recession in the host countries. The economic situation in the tourism sector is particularly monitored. Travel revenues fell by 33% in the first months of the year.

The decline in foreign trade, MRE transfers and tourism receipts are expected to worsen the current account deficit to 10.3%. This scenario weighed on the government's decision to draw the $3 billion LPL. It has strengthened foreign exchange reserves to more than 292 billion dirhams and also contributes to the stability of the currency.

In addition, exits from the Treasury on the international financial market are also planned. This would be an operation on the euro market to repay the 2010 Eurobond. Another issue of $1 billion would be made on the dollar market to consolidate foreign exchange reserves.

Some professionals are wondering about the interest of this second operation knowing that foreign exchange reserves have never been so high. For others, financing the recovery of the economy will require mobilizing all levers.

"The economic recovery plan is quite ambitious and we do not rule out the possibility that the LPL will be used to finance the needs of the Treasury," said one analyst. According to the forecasts of Bank Al-Maghrib, foreign exchange reserves would be around 219 billion DH at the end of the year.