The dirham is expected to experience a slight depreciation by the end of 2020, due to a catch-up effect of import flows, according to Attijari Global Research (AGR). The EUR/MAD parity should thus increase by 0.3%, 0.6% and 1.1% respectively at 1 month, 2 months and 3 months horizons, explains AGR in the 1st edition of its new generic report "MAD Insights", a weekly analysis point of the dirham as well as its development prospects. Based on its estimates, AGR indicates that the dirham should return to the levels recorded in June 2020, i.e. a EUR/MAD parity close to 10.9, reports the MAP.

The levels of depreciation of the MAD would be higher against the dollar, notes AGR, specifying that the USD/MAD parity should be up by 0.5%, 0.8% and 1.3% respectively at 1 month, 2 months and 3 months. "Indeed, we have noted a slight recovery in import operations in Morocco following to the movement of appreciation of the dirham during Q3-20, "says AGR, noting that under these conditions, the average USD/MAD parity should be around 9.26, within 3 months, without reaching the levels observed in June 2020, i.e. 9.8. In addition, the document highlights that the average volatility levels of the MAD over 1 month, 2 months and 3 months, against the six main currencies have reached "interesting levels".

Therefore, AGR advises "Corporates to favor optional strategies to hedge the dirham against its main reference currencies". In addition, AGR notes that the MAD reference rate continues to move below its central rate, and has been since June 2020, noting that the spread between these two prices is in negative territory, revealing a slight appreciation of the dirham against the dollar. This spread thus went from -2.85% to -2.87%, i.e. a market effect of -0.02% in one week. Combined with a negative basket effect of 0.12%, the USD/MAD parity fell by 0.14% over the same period.