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OF Morning Bulletin

27/09/2022
Categories: General Information

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European stock markets are expected to attempt a rebound and volatility could remain high. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,342.56 points (-0.18%), the CAC 40 at 5,769.39 points (-0.24%), the DAX 40 at 12.227.92 points (-0.46%), the FTSE 100 at 7,020.95 points (+0.03%), the SMI at 10,072.62 points (-0.64%), the AEX at 640.41 points (+0.18%), the BEL 20 at 3.389.04 points (-0.93%), the IBEX 35 at 7,508.50 points (-0.99%), the DJIA at 29,260.81 points (-1.11%), the Nasdaq at 10,802.92 points (-0.60%), the S&P 500 at 3,655.04 points (-1.03%) and the Nikkei 225 at 26,562.70 points (+0.50%).

Regarding exchange rates, the change from the close mentions that in New York, EUR/USD is at 0.9638 (+0.30%), EUR/JPY at 139.23 (+0.13%) and USD/JPY at 144.47 (-0.19%).

On Tuesday, September 27, TotalEnergies is organizing an investor day devoted to the outlook for the energy sector. For its part, Vinci is presenting its hydrogen strategy to the press. The day before, Quadient confirmed its revenue and operating income growth targets for its fiscal year ending in January 2023, after recording an increase in revenue in the first half.

François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, will be heard by the Finance Committee of the French National Assembly from 5:15 pm on the macroeconomic front.

The European equity market session on Tuesday 27 should start slightly higher. But given the deteriorating economic outlook and the turmoil in the foreign exchange and debt markets, volatility is likely to remain high.

According to data from broker IG Markets, the CAC 40 futures contract was up 20 points, or 0.3% at 7:40 a.m. The FTSE 100 contract was up 31 points, or 0.4 percent, while the DAX 40 was up 51 points, or 0.4 percent.

Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities in New York says, "We're in a very dangerous period for all markets."

Wall Street ended lower again on Monday 26 in the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 1.1%, entering its first bear market since 2020. This is a sequence defined by a decline of more than 20% from the previous peak.

The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6% and the broader S&P 500 index fell 1%. Major markets were mixed on Tuesday 27 in Asia. The Hang Seng index lost 0.8% in Hong Kong while the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange gained 0.4% at the end of the session. At the same time, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.6%.

This year, the World Bank has lowered its growth forecast from 4.3% to 2.8% for China. But it expects growth in 22 neighboring countries to double in 2022 compared to 2021 as these countries benefit from the lifting of most health restrictions and the recovery of tourism.

After posting a strong gain on Monday, September 26, U.S. Treasury yields are down overall the next morning. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, the market's benchmark security, gave up 3.8 basis points to 3.881% at 7:40 am.

The prospect of tighter monetary policies to curb inflation, and fears of increased issuance in Italy and the United Kingdom have supported bond yields in international markets to finance soaring government spending.

In the morning of Tuesday the 27th, the euro regained some of its strength against the dollar, rising 4% to 0.9645. Thus, the CBA warns that a new bout of volatility on the financial markets could allow the greenback, considered a safe haven currency, to quickly recover.

For his part, Michael Wilson, head of equity strategy at Morgan Stanley, warns that the rising dollar could weigh on corporate earnings. He reminds us that historically, this performance of the U.S. currency has led to an economic or financial crisis.

His team informed that "the recent evolution of the dollar puts risky assets in an untenable situation that has always ended in a financial crisis, an economic crisis or both".

On the morning of Tuesday, September 27, after falling overnight to their lowest level since January, oil futures are rising.

A synchronized economic slowdown is expected for all major commodity consumers in the world, according to CBA Bank. This is due to expectations of a slowdown in growth due to the monetary tightening. The November contract for Nymex-listed light sweet crude (WTI) advanced 60 cents to $77.30 a barrel, while the same-term contract for North Sea Brent gained 64 cents to $84.70 a barrel.

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