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OF Morning Report

28/06/2022
Categories: General Information

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European stock markets are expected to fall slightly before Christine Lagarde's speech in Sintra. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,538.88 points (+0.16%), the CAC 40 at 6,047.31 points (-0.43%), the DAX 40 at 13,186.07 points (+0.52%), the BEL 20 at 3,738.50 points (+1.44%), the IBEX 35 at 8,242.60 points (-0.02%), the DJIA at 31.438.26 points (-0.20%), the Nasdaq at 11,524.55 points (-0.72%) the S&P 500 at 3,900.11 points (-0.30%) and the Nikkei 225 at 26,954.65 points (+0.31%).

On the exchange side, the change from the close in New York indicates that EUR/USD opens at 1.0578 (-0.07%), EUR/JPY at 143.10 (-0.21%) and USD/JPY at 135.29 (-0.14%).
European equity markets are expected to open slightly lower on Tuesday, following global stock markets, while investors remain focused on the economic outlook and the monetary tightening cycle initiated by many central banks. In particular, they are waiting for the speech to be delivered by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, at the ECB's annual Forum in Sintra, Portugal. At 7:35am, the CAC 40 futures contract lost 20 points, or 0.3%. According to data from the IG Markets broker, the DAX 40 contract fell by 35 points, or 0.3%, and the FTSE 100 contract was unchanged.
In the United States, Wall Street finished lower on Monday, pausing after the rebound recorded last week by American indices. The Dow Jones Index (DJIA) lost 0.2% to 31,438.26 points, the broad S&P 500 index dropped 0.3% to 3,900.12 points, and the Nasdaq, rich in technology stocks, fell 0.8% to 11,514.03 points. Contrary to recently published statistics, the US Department of Commerce reported on Monday a rise of 0.7%, higher than expected, in durable goods orders in May. Promises to sell homes also rebounded for the first time in six months in May and exceeded expectations, according to figures released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
In Asia, the main markets presented a mixed picture on Tuesday. The Nikkei index gained 0.4% at the end of trading in Tokyo and the Shanghai Composite gained 0.1%. In contrast, the Hang Seng on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange lost 0.6%.
U.S. Treasury yields rose for the second session in a row on Monday after the release of better-than-expected figures for durable goods orders in May in the United States and bond auctions that were not enthusiastic. Final first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) figures are expected on Wednesday and the PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is due to be released on Thursday. Investors will be looking at whether the Fed needs to continue its fight against rising prices.

The euro fell slightly against the dollar on Tuesday morning.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) also warns that volatility could intensify as the end of the quarter and half of the year approaches on Thursday, as fund managers adjust their portfolios. For its part, Societe Generale believes that investors should refrain from buying the euro as long as the uncertainties linked to the conflict in Ukraine remain high. This war represents an “huge extreme risk” because of Europe's dependence on Russian gas, SocGen points out. The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing the difficult task of curbing inflation while supporting the economy and the bond market. “However, if in 12 months we see that the economic impact of the war has worn off, that the ECB has raised its rates, that inflation is lower and that the rate differentials (“speads”) in peripheral countries are stable, the euro should strengthen significantly,” the French bank indicates. According to SocGen, the euro/dollar pair is expected to recover to 1.20 by the second quarter of 2023.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday morning, after having already gained ground on Monday. Indeed, the latest economic statistics published in the United States, better than expected, allay fears surrounding demand. At 7:25am, the August North Sea Brent contract earned $1.42, at $116.51 per barrel. The contract of the same maturity on sweet light crude (WTI) traded on Nymex rose by $1.20 to $110.77 per barrel.

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