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OF Morning Newsletter

06/12/2022
Categories: General Information

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Concerned about monetary tightening in the United States, European stock exchanges are expected to open lower. The Eurostoxx 50 opens at 3,956,53 points (-0.54%), the CAC 40 at 6,696.96 points (-0.67% at, the DAX 40 at 14,447.61 points (-0.56%), the FTSE 100 at 7,567.54 points (+0.15%), the SMI at 11,194.67 points (-0,03%), the AEX at 727.09 points (-0,15%), the SMI at 11,194.67 points (-0,03%), the AEX at 727.09 points (-0,09%) .54%), the BEL 20 at 3,733.99 points (-0.54%), the IBEX 35 at 8,370.10 points (-0.15%), the DJIA at 33,947,10 points (-1.40%), the Nasdaq at 11,239.94 points (-1.93%), the S&P 500 at 3,998.84 points (-1.79%), the Nikkei 225 at 27,883%, the Nikkei 225 at 27.88% 5, 87 points (+0.24%).

As for exchange rates, the change compared to the close mentions that in New York, EUR/USD is at 1.0487 (-0.06%), EUR/JPY at 143.64 (+0.07%) and USD/JPY at 136.98 (+0.13%).

For its part, the rating agency S&P Global Ratings raised LVMH's credit rating to “AA-” from “A+” previously, on Monday evening, with a stable outlook. According to the agency, the group stands out in the luxury sector for its results and market share gains.

The classification in Suez is finalized by the water and waste management group Veolia, which owns 100% of the capital of Suez Recycling and Recovery UK Group Holdings (Suez R&R UK), the waste activities of the former Suez in the United Kingdom, for an amount of 2 billion pounds sterling (around 2.3 billion euros). Veolia specified in a press release that the proceeds of the transaction represent “an attractive valuation of 16.9 times the normalized 2021 EBITDA (gross operating surplus).” The purpose of this sale is to respond to the concerns of the British competition authority regarding the merger of Veolia and Suez.

In the wake of the fall on Wall Street the day before after the announcement of robust growth in the US services sector in November, which reinforced fears of a prolonged monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), European equity markets are expected to open lower on Tuesday.

The FTSE 100 contract fell 10 points, or 0.1%, and the DAX 40 contract lost 38 points, or 0.3%. According to data from the IG Markets broker, the CAC 40 futures contract yielded 23 points, or 0.3% around 7:40 a.m.;

The Nasdaq Composite, rich in technology stocks, fell by 1.9%, the Dow Jones Index (DJIA) dropped 1.4% on Monday, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.8%.

The recent stock pullback signals “that the market is fragile, and reasonably so, given the longevity and magnitude of the rebound in relief,” according to the technical strategist at Fairlead Strategies, Katie Stockton.

For

their part, analysts at DataTrek Research say they are concerned that equity investors are ignoring the risks of downward revisions to corporate earnings forecasts, as well as the potential repercussions of a recession that many economists see as imminent and probable.

As anticipated by economists, the Australian central bank raised its key rate from 2.85% to 3.10%. The third consecutive increase of this magnitude for the RBA, which has indicated that it anticipates further rate hikes in the coming months.

The main Asian stock exchanges traded in a mixed order on Tuesday. The Shanghai Composite fell by 0.2%, while the Hang Seng Index lost 1.4% at the end of the session in Hong Kong.

After the release of robust economic indicators in the United States, two- and ten-year US Treasury bond yields recorded their largest increase in at least a month on Monday. Markets assess the probability that the Fed will increase its key interest rate by another 50 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.5% on December 14, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Deutsche Bank said that “it is incredible that right now, the market is only focusing on the very high probability of a rise of 'only' 50 basis points next week and infers that the Fed is becoming accommodative, instead of focusing on the risk that the terminal rate will be closer to 6% than 5%.”

Investing in US Treasury bonds and other forms of government-guaranteed debt could be a smart bet next year, especially if a recession strikes, according to Truist Advisory Services. Truist strategists in their 2023 outlook pointed out that “history has shown that during an economic downturn, investment-grade corporate bonds like high-yield ones underperformed U.S. Treasury bonds.”


After reaching its highest level in five months on Monday, at around $1.0590, the euro changed little against the dollar on Tuesday morning. Francesco Pesole, an analyst at ING, indicates in a note that the single currency remains vulnerable to energy-related news. He added that “energy-related news should be more important for the euro this week, given the drop in temperatures in Europe and the entry into force of the Russian oil price cap.” The euro fell 0.03% to 1.0490 dollars at 7:40 a.m.

This morning, crude oil futures are rising and reflect some optimism about a further relaxation of health restrictions in China. The bank notes that press reports indicate that Beijing will announce further relief as early as Wednesday. According to ANZ, signs of a decrease in the supply of Russian oil are also supporting prices. Velandera Energy Partners warns, however, that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy “can only reduce oil demand.”

The managing director of Infrastructure Capital Management, Jay Hatfield, for his part believes that “the weakness of expected demand, due to a probable recession in Europe and weak growth in China, will be offset by the current energy crisis in Europe.” According to him, light sweet crude (WTI) listed on Nymex should evolve in a range between 80 and 100 dollars per barrel in 2023.

The January WTI contract was worth 41 cents at $77.34 per barrel and the February North Sea Brent contract earned 44 cents at $83.12 per barrel at 7:30am.

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